Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Yandy Díaz grounds out, third baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
TB 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. George Springer scores. (inning 5) — +25% Blue Jays
5Nathan Lukes homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. George Springer scores.2–4
2Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Daulton Varsho scores.2–2
2Jonathan Aranda homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
2Junior Caminero homers (45) on a line drive to right field.1–1
1Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. George Springer scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








