Twins at Phillies
Last play · Trevor Larnach flies out to right fielder Nick Castellanos.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIN 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 2 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Vázquez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 6) — -14% Twins
6Brandon Marsh doubles (25) on a ground ball to right fielder Trevor Larnach. Alec Bohm scores.1–3
6Christian Vázquez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
5Edmundo Sosa homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
1Alec Bohm out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Trevor Larnach. Kyle Schwarber scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








