Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Jeremiah Jackson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 6 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jordan Westburg homers (16) on a line drive to left field. Coby Mayo scores. Jackson Holliday scores. (inning 3) — -37% Orioles
7Giancarlo Stanton grounds out, third baseman Jordan Westburg to first baseman Coby Mayo. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.4–8
6Austin Wells singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Trent Grisham scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd.4–7
6Tyler O'Neill homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.4–6
3Giancarlo Stanton homers (23) on a fly ball to center field. Cody Bellinger scores.3–6
3Aaron Judge homers (52) on a fly ball to center field. José Caballero scores.3–4
3Jordan Westburg homers (16) on a line drive to left field. Coby Mayo scores. Jackson Holliday scores.3–2
1Giancarlo Stanton homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. Cody Bellinger scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








