Mets at Marlins
Last play · Luis Torrens grounds out, shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Troy Johnston.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Griffin Conine scores. Troy Johnston scores. (inning 5) — +29% Marlins
5Connor Norby homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Xavier Edwards scores.2–6
5Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Agustín Ramírez scores.2–4
5Jakob Marsee grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso. Heriberto Hernández scores.2–3
5Heriberto Hernández triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Griffin Conine scores. Troy Johnston scores.2–2
1Pete Alonso doubles (40) on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Juan Soto scores.2–0
1Francisco Lindor homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








