D-backs at Padres
Last play · Gabriel Moreno pops out to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 6 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a grand slam (24) to left center field. Gavin Sheets scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Freddy Fermin scores. (inning 4) — +46% Padres
8Jackson Merrill singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.4–7
8Ildemaro Vargas walks. Blaze Alexander scores. Adrian Del Castillo to 3rd. Tim Tawa to 2nd.4–6
8Tim Tawa walks. Ketel Marte scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd. Adrian Del Castillo to 2nd.3–6
5Jake Cronenworth walks. Manny Machado scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.2–6
4Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a grand slam (24) to left center field. Gavin Sheets scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Freddy Fermin scores.2–5
4Ryan O'Hearn singles on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Xander Bogaerts scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.2–1
3Jake McCarthy homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
1Ketel Marte homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








