Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Pedro Pagés pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 4) — +17% Cubs
8Kevin Alcántara singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Moisés Ballesteros scores.1–12
7Seiya Suzuki hits a grand slam (30) to left center field. Nico Hoerner scores. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker scores.1–11
7Ian Happ singles on a pop up to shortstop Thomas Saggese. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.1–7
7Michael Busch doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Matt Shaw scores.1–6
7Matt Shaw triples (3) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Dansby Swanson scores.1–5
7Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ. Nolan Gorman scores. Thomas Saggese to 2nd.1–4
5Michael Busch homers (32) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
4Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Tucker scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








