Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Nathan Church strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 3 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (34) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Shaw scores. (inning 5) — +25% Cubs
8Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (31) on a fly ball to right field. Seiya Suzuki scores.3–7
7Michael Busch triples (5) on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church, deflected by right fielder Jordan Walker. Matt Shaw scores.3–5
7Jordan Walker homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Jimmy Crooks scores.3–4
6Seiya Suzuki homers (31) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
5Michael Busch homers (34) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Shaw scores.1–3
4Nolan Arenado homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Michael Busch homers (33) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








