Twins at Phillies
Last play · Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
MIN 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 0 PHI
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+185 / -225
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Outman homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 5) — -16% Twins
7Ryan Jeffers doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Austin Martin scores.5–0
7Ryan Fitzgerald homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.4–0
5James Outman homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
4Carson McCusker grounds into a force out, third baseman Alec Bohm to second baseman Bryson Stott. Kody Clemens scores. Brooks Lee out at 2nd. Carson McCusker to 1st.2–0
1Byron Buxton homers (35) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








