Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Jeremiah Jackson called out on strikes.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 6 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -235
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Giancarlo Stanton homers (24) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +15% Yankees
8Coby Mayo homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field.1–6
5Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ben Rice scores.0–6
5Aaron Judge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Ryan McMahon scores. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd.0–5
2Ryan McMahon homers (20) on a fly ball to center field.0–3
2Giancarlo Stanton homers (24) on a fly ball to center field.0–2
1Aaron Judge homers (53) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








