Mets at Marlins
Last play · Agustín Ramírez grounds out, pitcher Edwin Díaz to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 0 MIA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso doubles (41) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Francisco Lindor scores. (inning 1) — -12% Mets
9Juan Soto walks. Tyrone Taylor scores. Francisco Lindor to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher George Soriano.5–0
9Francisco Lindor singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Francisco Alvarez scores. Tyrone Taylor to 3rd.4–0
6Jeff McNeil doubles (21) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Griffin Conine. Pete Alonso scores.3–0
3Pete Alonso homers (38) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
1Pete Alonso doubles (41) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Francisco Lindor scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








