Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Chandler Simpson grounds out, second baseman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
TB 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ernie Clement doubles (35) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Christopher Morel. Addison Barger scores. Davis Schneider scores. (inning 2) — +20% Blue Jays
7Alejandro Kirk homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
6Jonathan Aranda homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
5Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Christopher Morel. Ernie Clement scores.0–4
2Andrés Giménez singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Ernie Clement scores.0–3
2Ernie Clement doubles (35) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Christopher Morel. Addison Barger scores. Davis Schneider scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








