Pirates at Braves
Last play · Ha-Seong Kim flies out to center fielder Jack Suwinski.
Win probability
Braves0%
PIT 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 1 ATL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — -15% Pirates
6Jack Suwinski singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar, deflected by shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Nick Gonzales scores. Joey Bart to 3rd.3–1
6Nick Gonzales doubles (18) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Spencer Horwitz scores.2–1
3Henry Davis homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
2Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Drake Baldwin scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








