Reds at Brewers
Last play · Jackson Chourio grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Brewers0%
CIN 100%MIL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 6 – 2 MIL
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Perkins. Noelvi Marte scores. Miguel Andujar to 3rd. (inning 3) — -14% Reds
6Jake Bauers singles on a line drive to left fielder Will Benson. Andrew Vaughn scores. Isaac Collins to 2nd.7–4
6Jackson Chourio homers (21) on a fly ball to center field.7–3
6Sal Stewart homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.7–2
3Brice Turang doubles (27) on a fly ball to left fielder Spencer Steer. Joey Ortiz scores.6–2
3Christian Yelich grounds out, second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Sal Stewart. Danny Jansen scores. Joey Ortiz to 3rd.6–1
3TJ Friedl singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Tyler Stephenson scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Matt McLain scores. TJ Friedl to 2nd. Throwing error by left fielder Isaac Collins.6–0
3Matt McLain walks. Sal Stewart scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 2nd.3–0
3Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Miguel Andujar scores. Sal Stewart to 3rd. Tyler Stephenson to 2nd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








