D-backs at Padres
Last play · Jorge Barrosa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 1 – 5 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 1) — +16% Padres
5Geraldo Perdomo homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
2Elias Díaz homers (9) on a line drive to left center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores.0–5
1Xander Bogaerts homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Arraez scores.0–3
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (25) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








