Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Parker Meadows flies out to left fielder Jarren Duran.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
DET 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Javier Báez homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Justyn-Henry Malloy scores. Wenceel Pérez scores. (inning 4) — -38% Tigers
4Jarren Duran doubles (41) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Parker Meadows. Nick Sogard scores.3–4
4David Hamilton homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Connor Wong scores.3–3
4Javier Báez homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. Justyn-Henry Malloy scores. Wenceel Pérez scores.3–1
1Masataka Yoshida homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








