Pirates at Braves
Last play · Nick Yorke grounds out, pitcher Raisel Iglesias to second baseman Nick Allen to first baseman Matt Olson.
Win probability
Braves100%
PIT 0%ATL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 ATL
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Olson scores. (inning 1) — +17% Braves
8Drake Baldwin grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Jared Triolo. Matt Olson scores. Ronald Acuña Jr. out at 2nd. Drake Baldwin to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Jared Triolo.1–4
8Matt Olson singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Yorke. Nick Allen scores.1–3
6Joey Bart singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–2
1Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (21) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Olson scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








