Mets at Marlins
Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds into a double play, second baseman Xavier Edwards to shortstop Otto Lopez to first baseman Eric Wagaman. Ronny Mauricio out at 2nd. Francisco Lindor out at 1st.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eric Wagaman doubles (28) on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Connor Norby scores. (inning 4) — +13% Marlins
4Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Javier Sanoja scores.0–4
4Javier Sanoja triples (4) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Brian Navarreto scores.0–3
4Brian Navarreto doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Eric Wagaman scores.0–2
4Eric Wagaman doubles (28) on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Connor Norby scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








