Rays at Blue Jays
Last play · Jonathan Aranda grounds out, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to pitcher Eric Lauer.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
TB 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 8 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+170 / -205
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Kirk hits a grand slam (14) to left center field. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Daulton Varsho scores. (inning 1) — +23% Blue Jays
7George Springer homers (32) on a fly ball to center field. Myles Straw scores.4–13
7Myles Straw triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Josh Lowe. Ernie Clement scores.4–11
7Addison Barger homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field. Daulton Varsho scores.4–10
5Alejandro Kirk homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Anthony Santander scores.4–8
4Andrés Giménez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Josh Lowe. Ernie Clement scores.4–6
3Jake Mangum singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Jonathan Aranda scores. Josh Lowe to 2nd.4–5
3Jonathan Aranda singles on a line drive to right fielder Anthony Santander. Bob Seymour scores. Richie Palacios scores. Junior Caminero to 3rd.3–5
1Alejandro Kirk hits a grand slam (14) to left center field. Davis Schneider scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Daulton Varsho scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








