Reds at Brewers
Last play · Spencer Steer flies out to center fielder Blake Perkins.
Win probability
Brewers100%
CIN 0%MIL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 4 MIL
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Brewers favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Danny Jansen homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Isaac Collins scores. (inning 4) — +29% Brewers
4Andrew Vaughn doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jackson Chourio scores. Brice Turang to 3rd.2–4
4Danny Jansen homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Isaac Collins scores.2–3
3Brice Turang doubles (28) on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Jackson Chourio scores.2–1
3TJ Friedl homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
2Elly De La Cruz homers (22) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








