Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Jimmy Crooks strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (32) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 5) — +22% Cubs
7Moisés Ballesteros singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Kevin Alcántara scores.0–2
5Seiya Suzuki homers (32) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








