Twins at Phillies
Last play · Nick Castellanos out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder James Outman. Harrison Bader scores.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIN 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 0 PHI
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+205 / -250
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Kepler homers (18) on a line drive to right center field. (inning 8) — +35% Phillies
10Nick Castellanos out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder James Outman. Harrison Bader scores.1–2
8Max Kepler homers (18) on a line drive to right center field.1–1
6Ryan Jeffers doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Otto Kemp. Austin Martin scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








