Orioles at Yankees
Last play · Colton Cowser strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
BAL 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 2 NYY
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 8) — +38% Yankees
8Ben Rice homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field.2–3
4Giancarlo Stanton singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.2–2
4Gunnar Henderson homers (17) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
4Jordan Westburg homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Ben Rice homers (25) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








