D-backs at Padres
AZ4–
SD12Last play · James McCann grounds into a double play, shortstop Mason McCoy to second baseman Will Wagner to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Tim Tawa out at 2nd. James McCann out at 1st.
Win probability
Padres100%
AZ 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 9 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts doubles (30) on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill scores. (inning 1) — +16% Padres
9Geraldo Perdomo reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Jorge Barrosa scores. Jordan Lawlar scores.4–12
7Jose Iglesias doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Gavin Sheets scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.2–12
7Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Jackson Merrill scores. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.2–10
5Gavin Sheets grounds into a force out, second baseman Ildemaro Vargas to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Will Wagner scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd. Mason McCoy out at 2nd. Gavin Sheets to 1st.2–9
5Jackson Merrill doubles (25) on a fly ball to right fielder Jorge Barrosa. Bryce Johnson scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Will Wagner to 3rd.2–8
3Manny Machado homers (27) on a fly ball to left field.2–6
3Tim Tawa grounds into a double play, third baseman Manny Machado to second baseman Jose Iglesias to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Jordan Lawlar scores. Geraldo Perdomo out at 2nd. Tim Tawa out at 1st.2–5
1Jake Cronenworth out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Xander Bogaerts scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.