Astros at Angels
Last play · Taylor Ward called out on strikes.
Win probability
Angels0%
HOU 100%LAA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 5 – 1 LAA
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Angels favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ramón Urías homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Cam Smith scores. (inning 5) — -21% Astros
9Carter Kieboom singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jacob Melton. Jo Adell scores. Chris Taylor to 2nd.6–2
6Victor Caratini homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.6–1
5Brice Matthews homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.5–1
5Ramón Urías homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Cam Smith scores.4–1
5Yainer Diaz homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
1Mike Trout homers (26) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Yainer Diaz singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Bryce Teodosio. Mauricio Dubón scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








