Western Kentucky vs. Nevada: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsNEV
- Q4 1:18WKUAjay Allen 10 Yd Run (Michael Smith Kick)14–49
- Q4 6:07NEVCarter Jackson 1 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–49
- Q4 7:38NEVDominic Kelley 1 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:03NEVDJ Asiasi 14 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:01NEVDonnie Cheers 32 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:21NEVDonnie Cheers 20 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:20WKUAjay Allen 4 Yd Run (Michael Smith Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:17NEVHerschel Turner 8 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:25NEVDominic Kelley 72 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–7
How it was won
72‑yard run
Dominic Kelley’s 72‑yard rush in Q1 turned a tie into a 7‑0 lead, swinging Nevada’s win chance up 17 points.
Kelley’s production
Kelley amassed 152 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries, outpacing WKU’s top rusher Ajay Allen’s 102 yards.
Costly punt
Western Kentucky’s 4th‑and‑6 punt in Q2 cost an expected 0.55 points, a decision our model said should have been a go‑for‑it.
Turnover margin
Nevada forced a turnover while committing only one of its own, a +1 turnover edge that helped sustain its 35‑point win.
How the model called it
Nevada was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
Dominic Kelley scored 12 of Nevada's points. Nevada routs Western Kentucky, 49-14 at Mackay Stadium. Nevada led from start to finish and never let Western Kentucky within striking distance. Dominic Kelley ran 11 times for 152 yards and two scores.
- PassRodney Tisdale Jr. 24/40, 203 YDS
- RushAjay Allen 21 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
- RecCameron Flowers 7 REC, 60 YDS
- PassCarter Jones 9/15, 163 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushDominic Kelley 11 CAR, 152 YDS, 2 TD
- RecGary Givens III 2 REC, 83 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNEV up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 3:24NEV +24%
Shotgun #1 H.Turner rush right for 3 yards gain to the Nevada07 (#7 J.Lewis)
- Q2 5:20WKU +20%
Shotgun #3 A.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Nevada00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 2:17NEV +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 H.Turner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 14:25NEV +17%
Shotgun #0 D.Kelley rush right for 72 yards gain to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 11:01NEV +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass complete deep right to #5 D.Cheers caught at WKU03, for 32 yards to the WKU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 4:58NEV +5%
Shotgun #6 C.Jones pass intercepted by #6 J.Brown at WKU46 #6 J.Brown return 8 yards to the Nevada46 (#1 H.Turner)
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Nevada?
Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WKU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| WKU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| 367 | Total yards | 486 |
| 203 | Passing yards | 163 |
| 164 | Rushing yards | 323 |
| 23 | First downs | 20 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-10 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 24/40 | Comp/Att | 9/16 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 7.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-59 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 32:33 | Possession | 27:27 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:28 WKU punt on 4th & 6 at NEV 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:18WKUAjay Allen 10 Yd Run (Michael Smith Kick)14–49
- Q4 6:07NEVCarter Jackson 1 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–49
- Q4 7:38NEVDominic Kelley 1 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–42
- Q3 4:03NEVDJ Asiasi 14 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–35
- Q3 11:01NEVDonnie Cheers 32 Yd pass from Carter Jones (Joe McFadden Kick)7–28
- Q2 2:21NEVDonnie Cheers 20 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:20WKUAjay Allen 4 Yd Run (Michael Smith Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:17NEVHerschel Turner 8 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–14
- Q1 14:25NEVDominic Kelley 72 Yd Run (Joe McFadden Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1351, WKU Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +6.4 (35% to win) — 5.9 points clear of WKU's market line of +0.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#2 of 10 in 2026 by biggest miss · #8 of 10 in 2026 by longest odds.
The 2026 upset archive →| WKU | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.8 (#118) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#60) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | +2 / -1 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 4.46 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Carter Jones produced four of Nevada's eight explosive plays
Nevada was in control wire to wire. What the rout was actually built on.
One team finished its drives
Nevada scored on 58% of its drives to Western Kentucky's 17%: Dominic Kelley (12 pts), Carter Jones (12 pts) and Donnie Cheers (12 pts). Nevada sacked Western Kentucky's quarterback 3 times, led by Dylan LaBarbera (1 sack), Jeremy Naborne-Owens (1 sack) and Tajean Stallworth (1 sack). Stacked together, it was never close.
The standouts
Dominic Kelley ran 11 times for 152 yards and two scores — that score from inside the 20. Carter Jones threw for 163 yards on 15 attempts with two touchdowns and ran six times for 50 yards — that score from inside the 20, three third-down conversions and a hand in four plays of 15 yards or more. Donnie Cheers ran two times for 27 yards and one score and caught one pass for 32 yards for a touchdown, including that score from inside the 20. For Western Kentucky, Ajay Allen ran 21 times for 102 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 7 yards — two of them from inside the 20. Cameron Flowers caught seven passes for 60 yards, with two third-down conversions. Rodney Tisdale Jr. threw for 203 yards on 40 attempts and ran 10 times for 13 yards — five third-down conversions and a hand in three plays of 15 yards or more. Dylan LaBarbera was the disruptive one for Nevada: 1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles.
What Western Kentucky has to fix
Western Kentucky was not without production. Ajay Allen ran 21 times for 102 yards and two scores and caught two passes for 7 yards, but it arrived in a game that was already gone.
The disruptive ones
Two names to keep: Justin Brown (1 INT, 2.5 tackles) for Western Kentucky and Dylan LaBarbera (1 sack, 1.5 TFLs, 4.5 tackles) for Nevada.
How it unfolded
Nevada struck first through Dominic Kelley, led 21-7 at the half and Western Kentucky got the final points on a late touchdown by Ajay Allen.
How it graded
The closing line had Western Kentucky -1.5. Nevada covered. The total was 51.5; the teams combined for 63, an over. Dominic Kelley accounted for 12 of Nevada's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Nevada cleared the bar with room to spare; Western Kentucky goes back to the drawing board. Ajay Allen was responsible for 12 of Western Kentucky's points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →