Utah State vs. Washington: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USUTeam statsWASH
- Q4 1:50USUEli Wood 7 Yd pass from Grady Brosterhous (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–16
- Q4 6:28WASHTyler Robles 43 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q4 12:54WASHTyler Robles 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 6:41WASHAnsu Sanoe 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–10
- Q2 11:19USUJavon Robinson 78 Yd pass from Grady Brosterhous (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–3
- Q2 11:35WASHTyler Robles 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
The Aggies scored on a quarter of their drives against Idaho State; Washington is stingiest at exactly the down-and-distance Utah State needs to control.
Washington won the only meeting between these programs, 31-17 at home in 2015 — a clean win, and nothing close to 26.5. Nobody from that afternoon is involved on Saturday, but it is the one piece of shared history here, and what has changed since is specific rather than vague: Washington held Washington State to 10 points six days ago, and the widest gap in this matchup sits exactly where Utah State most needs to be functional — short-yardage power.
- PassGrady Brosterhous 17/28, 196 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushGrady Brosterhous 21 CAR, 81 YDS
- RecJavon Robinson 3 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- PassDemond Williams Jr. 26/41, 249 YDS
- RushDemond Williams Jr. 11 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecDezmen Roebuck 7 REC, 59 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWASH up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:19USU +21%
Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Robinson caught at USU47, for 78 yards to the WASH00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 6:41WASH +20%
Shotgun #30 A.Sanoe rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 12:54WASH +19%
#95 T.Robles field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD
- Q4 0:40USU +16%
Shotgun #9 G.Brosterhous rush middle for 12 yards gain to the USU27 (#48 J.Lane), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 6:28WASH +16%
#95 T.Robles field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD
- Q4 0:04USU +14%
PENALTY USU Illegal Formation 5 yards from WASH39 to WASH44. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Utah State vs. Washington?
Utah State 14, Washington 16.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WASH) was correct.
| USU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| 271 | Total yards | 356 |
| 196 | Passing yards | 249 |
| 75 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 14 | First downs | 18 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 6-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 17/29 | Comp/Att | 26/41 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 6.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-35 | Penalties | 6-44 |
| 24:55 | Possession | 35:05 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:35 WASH punt on 4th & 2 at USU 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.03 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:50USUEli Wood 7 Yd pass from Grady Brosterhous (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–16
- Q4 6:28WASHTyler Robles 43 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q4 12:54WASHTyler Robles 26 Yd Field Goal 7–13
- Q2 6:41WASHAnsu Sanoe 1 Yd Run (Tyler Robles Kick)7–10
- Q2 11:19USUJavon Robinson 78 Yd pass from Grady Brosterhous (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–3
- Q2 11:35WASHTyler Robles 30 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WASH Elo 1762, USU Elo 1376 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WASH -9.5 (72% to win) — 19.0 points clear of USU's market line of -28.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USU | WASH | |
|---|---|---|
| -2.0 (#79) | CORE overall | +15.9 (#22) |
| -0 / +2 | offense / defense | +4 / -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Utah State's power game meets its worst possible matchup
The Aggies scored on a quarter of their drives against Idaho State; Washington is stingiest at exactly the down-and-distance Utah State needs to control.
Utah State wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward Washington, the more likely Washington wins.
Utah State's power game has nowhere to go
Short-yardage and power is the most lopsided unit matchup in the game, 3.58 standard deviations toward Washington, and it is the one gear a 26.5-point underdog cannot do without. Javen Jacobs projects for 15 to 42 rushing yards and a 28% chance of a touchdown — a band that assumes Utah State rarely gets ahead of the sticks. Third-and-short turns into third-and-long, and third-and-long is where Washington's second edge lives.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward Washington are battles it should win; toward Utah State are ones Utah State wins.
Bryson Barnes has to win on obvious passing Downs
Explosive passing tilts 1.98 standard deviations Washington's way, and the receiving projections are compressed to match. Bryson Barnes projects for 118 to 215 passing yards with a 66% chance of a touchdown against a pass defense that grades 6th of 185 by what it allows; Anthony Garcia lands at 13 to 41 yards, Broc Lane 11 to 37, Kahanu Davis 18 to 31. Utah State will complete passes. Completing the kind that erase a two-score deficit is the harder ask.
Six Days ago, a quarter of Utah State's drives ended in points
Utah State lost 17-29 at home to Idaho State, scoring on 25.0% of 12 drives and gaining 34.8 yards per possession. That is the most current evidence anyone has on this offense, and it points the same direction the matchup edges do: drives that stall before they threaten. The 37-20 projection still leans mostly on the preseason baseline rather than one Saturday, but nothing in that Saturday argues against it.
Washington won without an offensive showcase, a team that went 9-4 and averaged 34.1 points last season scored 24 on Washington State, gaining 31.0 yards per drive and cashing 33.3% of them. For a favorite laying 26.5, that mix only clears the number if the defense keeps handing the offense short fields and Utah State's possessions keep dying early.
Utah State's defense holds the game's only edge
Big plays overall tilt 1.20 standard deviations toward Utah State's defense, and that lone edge is the entire foundation of the underdog's cover case. Jordan Washington projects for 26 to 45 rushing yards against a run defense that grades 40th of 185, and Dezmen Roebuck for 27 to 82 receiving yards with a 49% touchdown chance. Demond Williams Jr.'s 222-to-327 passing band and 89% touchdown chance describe a methodical afternoon, not a sudden one.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Utah State's defense is one of the best in the country — better than 100% of FBS defenses.
The Aggies' route to a cover is containment, not chaos
Keep the possession count low, avoid giveaways, make Washington earn field in four-yard pieces, those criteria are more achievable than the blowout stack the favorite needs. The projection has Washington landing nine points short of 26.5, and it covers the favorite in only 29% of its outcomes, which makes the underdog the side even at 88% to lose outright. A one-score finish is a separate question: the projection gives that about a 1-in-4 chance.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward Washington are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
What has to happen
Washington needs Utah State's early downs to fail, because everything downstream, Barnes throwing into that secondary, drives ending in punts, short fields, follows from that. The projection gives roughly even odds that someone wins by 20 or more. Utah State needs the inverse: Jacobs moving the chains on the ground, possessions that reach the red zone rather than the punt team after it scored on 25.0% of them last week.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →