Arizona vs. BYU: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARIZTeam statsBYU
- Q4 6:10BYUKyler Kasper 12 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)17–28
- Q3 9:37BYUKyler Kasper 6 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)17–21
- Q2 2:03ARIZShane King 16 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:46BYUReggie Frischknecht 25 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:24ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:16BYUBear Bachmeier 6 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:10ARIZNoah Fifita 11 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
How the model called it
The game's biggest mismatch belongs to the underdog, but Arizona's power running only settles short downs while Bachmeier throws at a pass defense graded 57th of 185.
Start with the oddity: the single widest edge in this game belongs to the team getting 7.5 points. Arizona's short-yardage and power running grades 2.11 better than what BYU's defense does in those situations, the largest gap anywhere on the field. Arizona holds a second edge, 0.92 in the passing phase, and the projection still reads BYU 37, Arizona 11. The edges Arizona owns move the chains; the 1.77 edge BYU owns in explosive passing moves the scoreboard.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ARIZ ahead, below = BYU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
- PassNoah Fifita 23/31, 230 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKedrick Reescano 15 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecCole Rusk 2 REC, 48 YDS
- PassBear Bachmeier 16/26, 217 YDS, 3 TD
- RushLJ Martin 20 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecLegend Glasker 3 REC, 74 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona vs. BYU?
Arizona 17, BYU 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BYU) was correct.
| ARIZ | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| 327 | Total yards | 365 |
| 230 | Passing yards | 217 |
| 97 | Rushing yards | 148 |
| 19 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/31 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 7.4 | Yards per pass | 8.3 |
| 3.1 | Yards per rush | 4.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-55 | Penalties | 7-59 |
| 33:41 | Possession | 26:19 |
- Q4 6:10BYUKyler Kasper 12 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)17–28
- Q3 9:37BYUKyler Kasper 6 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)17–21
- Q2 2:03ARIZShane King 16 Yd pass from Noah Fifita (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)17–14
- Q2 12:46BYUReggie Frischknecht 25 Yd pass from Bear Bachmeier (Matthias Dunn Kick)10–14
- Q1 0:24ARIZMichael Salgado-Medina 37 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:16BYUBear Bachmeier 6 Yd Run (Matthias Dunn Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:10ARIZNoah Fifita 11 Yd Run (Michael Salgado-Medina Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BYU Elo 1666, ARIZ Elo 1625 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BYU -10.3 (75% to win) — 3.3 points clear of BYU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBYU leads 14–12–1 · BYU has won 5 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| ARIZ | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| +9.0 (#37) | CORE overall | +12.1 (#34) |
| +4 / -5 | offense / defense | +7 / -5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Arizona's power edge can't cover BYU's explosive passing
The game's biggest mismatch belongs to the underdog, but Arizona's power running only settles short downs while Bachmeier throws at a pass defense graded 57th of 185.
Arizona wins
The range of outcomes for this game. Each bar is how often the final margin lands in that range — the more it leans toward BYU, the more likely BYU wins.
The edge Arizona owns is the one that pays least
BYU's front graded 15th of 185 against the run, and the individual bands respect it. Mahdi lands between 31 and 67 rushing yards, Reescano between 16 and 44 with a 49% chance of a touchdown. Those are complementary workloads, not the volume Arizona can hand a game to. Arizona can convert the yard it needs and still be stuck on first and second down, which is where BYU's 0.81 edge in overall efficiency actually lives.
Each unit matchup this season, sorted by how decisive it is — the top bar is what most tilts the game. Bars toward BYU are battles it should win; toward Arizona are ones Arizona wins.
Last week points the same way. Arizona scored on 46.2% of thirteen drives against Northern Arizona and went three-and-out on 30.8% of them, averaging 37.2 yards per drive in a 35-7 win. Nearly a third of Arizona's possessions ended without a first down against the least demanding opponent it will see. The preseason baseline still carries the heavier weight in this projection, and Arizona's opener gave it nothing to reconsider.
Underneath the situational grades, the down-to-down math runs 0.81 BYU's way on overall efficiency. That is the quieter number and the more punishing one: Arizona's average snap gains less against expectation than BYU's does, so Arizona's power advantage keeps arriving on third down instead of setting up second and short. Arizona's 30.8% three-and-out rate last week is what that looks like against a defense considerably softer than BYU's.
On big plays overall, BYU holds a 1.65 edge over what Arizona's offense generates. Arizona has to assemble long, clean possessions for points BYU can take in two snaps, and BYU averaged 46.5 yards per drive last week doing exactly that. When an Arizona drive stalls, the swing is two scores rather than one, and a 46.2% scoring rate against Northern Arizona says the stalls come often enough to matter.
Bachmeier's ceiling is the whole difference
Bachmeier projects for 151 to 312 passing yards with a 68% chance of throwing a touchdown, and the width of that band is the argument. Arizona's pass defense graded 57th of 185, competent rather than a wall, and BYU's explosive passing carries a 1.77 edge against exactly that. BYU does not need Bachmeier at the top of his range; even near 151 the scoring holds, because those yards arrive in chunks Arizona's front never gets to influence.
Fifita's band runs 167 to 263 yards with an 85% touchdown chance, the highest scoring likelihood of any passer in this game. He is the more reliable producer and the lower ceiling, which is the trade Arizona is stuck with. Arizona's passing game grades 0.92 ahead of BYU's defense in that phase, the underdog's second real edge and the one worth building a plan around, because it is the only Arizona advantage that produces points in bunches.
BYU scored on 72.7% of eleven drives and averaged 46.5 yards per drive in a 63-7 win over Utah Tech. Martin's 67 to 128 rushing range with a 59% touchdown chance comes against an Arizona run defense graded 12th of 185, which is the tell: BYU's ground game is the complement here, not the engine. BYU wins this by throwing it, and Arizona's better defensive unit is the one built to stop the other thing.
Arizona's defense is aimed at the wrong plane
Arizona's run defense at 12th of 185 is a legitimately good unit, and Arizona allowed seven points in its opener. It is also the strength BYU has the least reason to test. Every edge BYU carries into Saturday lives in the air, pointed at the 57th-of-185 piece of Arizona's defense. Arizona can play its best defensive game and still lose by 20, because the throws that beat this secondary are the ones its front never touches.
Points allowed per drive across all FBS defenses (lower is better). Arizona's defense is one of the best in the country — better than 100% of FBS defenses.
Both teams allowed seven points last week, and only one of them now lines up across from an offense that scored on 72.7% of its possessions. Arizona's front can hold Martin near the bottom of his 67 to 128 range and watch BYU build the margin anyway. Arizona's best defensive grade, 12th of 185 against the run, answers the part of BYU's offense that BYU needs least.
Six points last year is Arizona's best argument
These two met last season at Arizona and BYU won 33-27, a one-possession game between the same programs and comfortably the strongest piece of evidence Arizona has. The projection does not lean on that scoreline, because BYU is graded 25.7 points better overall now, and it lands on BYU 37, Arizona 11 against a team that traded scores with it a year ago. The 33-27 and a 25.7-point grade gap are hard to hold in the same hand.
Each ingredient of our projection and the side it favors — bars toward BYU are why it's the pick (home field is counted separately).
Take Arizona's 33-27 result seriously in one direction only: it establishes that Arizona can trade possessions with BYU, and the 35-7 opener did not contradict that. That meeting was also at Arizona, against a BYU side that has since graded out 25.7 points better overall. A six-point margin at home is evidence Arizona can stay in a game with BYU, not evidence that the closeness travels.
What Arizona would have to do
Arizona's cover and Arizona's upset are different projects, and only one of them is realistic at a 6% win probability. Arizona needs the 2.11 short-yardage edge to turn into drive length rather than isolated fourth-down conversions: Fifita at the top of his 167 to 263 band, Mahdi grinding toward 67 rather than 31, and enough sustained possessions that BYU takes fewer swings at the throws it wins with.
A one-score finish carries about a 12% chance here, so Arizona's cover does not live in a late field goal. It lives in the wide middle, a game Arizona keeps inside 7.5 by shortening it rather than by winning the exchanges BYU grades 1.77 better at. That requires Arizona's 0.92 passing edge to show up on first down rather than in catch-up mode.
BYU needs nothing exotic: throw at the 57th-of-185 pass defense, let Martin keep the down and distance manageable, and BYU's margin assembles itself. There is a 67% chance somebody wins this by 20 or more, and BYU holds the explosive-play edge that gets a team there first. Arizona's power game is real, and a 2.11 edge in it does not change which team wins going away.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →