Troy vs. Missouri Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Troy gets at Missouri: 27th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 60th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Missouri gets at Troy: 26th in the push up front, against a unit 93rd at holding the line of scrimmage. Missouri is also 21st at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 83rd.
How
TROYattacks
MIZ
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TROY#27 of 138MIZ#60 of 138
HowMIZattacksTROY
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
MIZ#26 of 138TROY#93 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
MIZ#21 of 138TROY#83 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
MIZ#10 of 138TROY#70 of 138
The two teams
Troy
Troy is in year 3 under Gerad Parker. The strengths are offensive, led by 27th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 127th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 123rd at keeping a clean pocket.
Troy has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#27projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#127projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#123projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#121projected
Missouri
Missouri is in year 7 under Eli Drinkwitz, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are defensive, led by 5th on early downs defensively. The way in is 111th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −33.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Missouri has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensefirst and second down#5projected
- Defensethrowing it#9projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#9projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#111projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1691, TROY Elo 1420 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -27.4 (96% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TROY80th17thMIZMIZ34th52ndTROYThrough the air
TROY104th26thMIZMIZ16th89thTROYOn the ground
TROY40th36thMIZMIZ47th15thTROYStaying on the field
TROY110th12thMIZMIZ34th66thTROYTaking care of it
TROY1st46thMIZMIZ48th76thTROY
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TROY | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| -0.7 (#44) | CORE overall | +12.4 (#9) |
| -1 / -0 | offense / defense | +6 / -6 |
| 2.18 | points / drive | 3.46 |
| 1.75 | allowed / drive | 1.17 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -6 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Troy vs. Missouri?
Gridpex's model favors Missouri with a 96% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Troy vs. Missouri?
The model projects Missouri by 27.4.
What time is Troy vs. Missouri and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →