Western Carolina vs. Furman: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Western Carolina0-1
▸
Furman0-1
Final
Paladin StadiumConference game
WESTTeam statsFURM
801Total yards294
652Pass239
149Rush55
33First downs17
5-133rd down6-19
2Turnovers1
27:43Possession32:17
- Q4 1:54WESTMalik Knight 32 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (Paxton Robertson Kick)52–20
- Q4 2:57FURMJackson Pryor 3 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)45–20
- Q4 5:40WESTBranson Adams 48 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)45–13
- Q4 13:17WESTZion Booker 20 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)38–13
- Q3 0:06FURMJohn Holbrook 3 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)31–13
- Q3 4:31WESTJalynn Williams 4 Yd Run (Paxton Robertson Kick)31–6
- Q3 11:07WESTDe'Andre Tamarez 23 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:02WESTPaxton Robertson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 9:12FURMColton Hinton 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Ian Williams PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 9:25WESTIsaiah Johnson 62 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:00WESTIsaiah Johnson 15 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
Market line
WEST −6.5
Against the number
WEST covered
line WEST −6.5
What the numbers say
- FURM lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 30% success rate
Kickoff161 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
FURM (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FURM 0%
Closing line
WEST −6.5
Closing total
55.5
Model line
—
Actual result
WEST 52 – 20 FURM
Western Carolina
- PassCole Gonzales 35/55, 620 YDS, 5 TD
- RushBranson Adams 9 CAR, 70 YDS
- RecIsaiah Johnson 6 REC, 117 YDS, 2 TD
Furman
- PassTrey Hedden 22/34, 239 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushGrant Robinson 9 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecColton Hinton 9 REC, 114 YDS
22.6sper snap · faster the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
159
Points / snap
0.45
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWEST up 18 entering the 4th quarter. Across 837 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
WEST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Carolina vs. Furman?
Western Carolina 52, Furman 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FURM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
WEST
FURM
47%
Success rate
30%
0.61
EPA / pass
0.19
0.38
EPA / rush
-0.39
47%
Early-down success
29%
49%
Pass success
35%
39%
Rush success
24%
28%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
15%
26%
Stuffed rush rate
30%
73%
Pass rate
55%
9.5
Avg 3rd-down distance
7.9
WEST
9.5 yards to go on 3rd down
86 scrimmage snaps
FURM
7.9 yards to go on 3rd down
73 scrimmage snaps
| WEST | FURM | |
|---|---|---|
| 801 | Total yards | 294 |
| 652 | Passing yards | 239 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 55 |
| 33 | First downs | 17 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 6-19 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 36/56 | Comp/Att | 22/34 |
| 11.6 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 11-96 | Penalties | 8-75 |
| 27:43 | Possession | 32:17 |
WEST
3/7 with the model
−2.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
FURM
8/12 with the model
−2.1 pts · −0.0% win prob
Costliest call
Q2 11:19 FURM punt on 4th & 1 at FURM 30. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEST 8/15 scoring drives← own end zone →FURM 2/14 scoring drives
WESTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
FURMPUNT7 pl, 22 yds· own 35Q1
WESTFUM12 pl, 64 yds· own 20Q1
FURMPUNT3 pl, -2 yds· own 16Q1
FURMMISS6 pl, 10 yds· opp 39Q1
WESTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 29Q1
FURMPUNT3 pl, -11 yds· own 25Q1
WESTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 40Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 21Q2
WESTTD4 pl, 81 yds· own 19Q2
WESTPUNT4 pl, 28 yds· own 25Q2
FURMPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 10Q2
WESTMISS7 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q2
WESTFG11 pl, 73 yds· own 18Q2
FURMPUNT3 pl, 12 yds· own 25Q3
WESTTD8 pl, 76 yds· own 24Q3
FURMPUNT4 pl, 23 yds· own 28Q3
WESTPUNT4 pl, 31 yds· own 3Q3
FURMPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 34Q3
WESTTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3
FURMTD12 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q3
WESTTD5 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
FURMDOWNS7 pl, 73 yds· own 26Q4
WESTTD9 pl, 99 yds· own 1Q4
FURMTD9 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q4
WESTTD4 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q4
FURMINT3 pl, 7 yds· opp 43Q4
WESTEND2 pl, -7 yds· own 16Q4
- Q4 1:54WESTMalik Knight 32 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (Paxton Robertson Kick)52–20
- Q4 2:57FURMJackson Pryor 3 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)45–20
- Q4 5:40WESTBranson Adams 48 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)45–13
- Q4 13:17WESTZion Booker 20 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)38–13
- Q3 0:06FURMJohn Holbrook 3 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (Ian Williams Kick)31–13
- Q3 4:31WESTJalynn Williams 4 Yd Run (Paxton Robertson Kick)31–6
- Q3 11:07WESTDe'Andre Tamarez 23 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)24–6
- Q2 0:02WESTPaxton Robertson 26 Yd Field Goal 17–6
- Q2 9:12FURMColton Hinton 96 Yd Kickoff Return (Ian Williams PAT failed)14–6
- Q2 9:25WESTIsaiah Johnson 62 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)14–0
- Q1 14:00WESTIsaiah Johnson 15 Yd pass from Cole Gonzales (Paxton Robertson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →