North American vs. Incarnate Word: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

North American0-1

03

Incarnate Word0-1

▸0063

Final

Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	3	3
INCA	28	14	14	7	63

NORTTeam statsINCA

12Total yards531

2Pass281

10Rush250

3First downs26

1-153rd down6-9

2Turnovers2

36:05Possession23:55

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:40INCANick Meehan 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)3–63
• Q4 8:22NORTCristobal Salgado 33 Yd Field Goal 3–56
• Q3 7:45INCAAJ Harris 43 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–56
• Q3 9:38INCADekalon Taylor 24 Yd pass from Richard Torres (Mason Lawler Kick)0–49
• Q2 4:45INCAJarrell Wiley 14 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–42
• Q2 10:23INCACJ Hardy 1 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:09INCATimothy Carter 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:36INCAZach Calzada 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:30INCARonald Wilson 35 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:22INCACJ Hardy 31 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–7

What the numbers say

• NORT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and INCA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.6 vs 3rd & 4.4

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

INCA 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff128 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

INCA (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: INCA 100%

Leaders

North American

• PassOscar Ozuna 5/5, 9 YDS
• RushXander Armani Williams 3 CAR, 17 YDS
• RecColbi Clark 5 REC, 22 YDS

Incarnate Word

• PassZach Calzada 11/16, 193 YDS, 2 TD
• RushJarrell Wiley 7 CAR, 59 YDS, 1 TD
• RecCJ Hardy 4 REC, 72 YDS, 2 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

30.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

111

Points / snap

0.59

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

INCA up 56 entering the 4th quarter. Across 97 historically comparable game states (within ±3 pts and ±5 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

INCA went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEastern Michigan vs South Alabama59-10WArkansas vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff70-0WUConn vs Merrimack63-17WSan José State vs Cal Poly59-3WAlabama vs Western Kentucky63-0

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT gave up 1.7 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 9/11 · INCA 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of North American vs. Incarnate Word?

North American 3, Incarnate Word 63.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (INCA) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

INCA

12%

Success rate

61%

-0.86

EPA / pass

0.39

-0.27

EPA / rush

0.38

9%

Early-down success

62%

18%

Pass success

55%

5%

Rush success

66%

6%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

18%

46%

Stuffed rush rate

13%

56%

Pass rate

48%

10.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.4

NORT

10.6 yards to go on 3rd down

50 scrimmage snaps

INCA

4.4 yards to go on 3rd down

61 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		INCA
12	Total yards	531
2	Passing yards	281
10	Rushing yards	250
3	First downs	26
1-15	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	2-3
15/24	Comp/Att	18/29
0.1	Yards per pass	9.7
0.4	Yards per rush	7.4
2	Turnovers	2
6-36	Penalties	7-68
36:05	Possession	23:55

Fourth downs

16 calls

NORT

9/11 with the model

−1.7 pts · −0.0% win prob

INCA

2/3 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q1 9:50 NORT punt on 4th & 2 at NORT 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.

Every call, priced (16)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →INCA 7/11 scoring drives

NORTPUNT3 pl, -5 yds· own 30Q1

INCATD5 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q1

NORTTD3 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 40Q1

INCATD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -6 yds· own 25Q1

INCATD5 pl, 35 yds· opp 35Q1

NORTPUNT6 pl, -2 yds· own 14Q1

INCAFUM4 pl, 12 yds· opp 45Q1

NORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 29Q1

INCATD10 pl, 54 yds· own 46Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· own 25Q2

INCAFUM4 pl, 38 yds· own 45Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 17Q2

INCATD2 pl, 21 yds· opp 21Q2

NORTPUNT8 pl, 27 yds· own 25Q2

INCAEND1 pl, 0 yds· own 7Q2

INCATD7 pl, 77 yds· own 23Q3

NORTTD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, -8 yds· own 30Q3

INCADOWNS8 pl, 44 yds· own 42Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 14Q3

NORTFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 19Q3

INCATD12 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q4

NORTPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 25Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:40INCANick Meehan 1 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)3–63
• Q4 8:22NORTCristobal Salgado 33 Yd Field Goal 3–56
• Q3 7:45INCAAJ Harris 43 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–56
• Q3 9:38INCADekalon Taylor 24 Yd pass from Richard Torres (Mason Lawler Kick)0–49
• Q2 4:45INCAJarrell Wiley 14 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–42
• Q2 10:23INCACJ Hardy 1 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–35
• Q1 5:09INCATimothy Carter 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–28
• Q1 8:36INCAZach Calzada 2 Yd Run (Mason Lawler Kick)0–21
• Q1 11:30INCARonald Wilson 35 Yd Interception Return (Mason Lawler Kick)0–14
• Q1 12:22INCACJ Hardy 31 Yd pass from Zach Calzada (Mason Lawler Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →