Fresno State vs. San Diego State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsSDSU
- Q4 2:54SDSULeo Kemp 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)18–33
- Q4 10:08FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Jalen Moss Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)18–26
- Q4 14:14SDSUJack Browning 33 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 8:55SDSUJaylon Armstead 1 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)10–23
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 2:58SDSUJack Browning 41 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 8:03SDSUJalen Mayden 70 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:56SDSUJack Browning 39 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:12SDSUJack Browning 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:19FRESMalik Sherrod 62 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassMikey Keene 21/36, 190 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMalik Sherrod 15 CAR, 138 YDS, 2 TD
- RecErik Brooks 5 REC, 53 YDS
- PassJalen Mayden 17/26, 189 YDS, 1 TD
- RushJalen Mayden 14 CAR, 96 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCameron Harpole 3 REC, 46 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSDSU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:55SDSU +25%
Jaylon Armstead run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
- Q2 8:03SDSU +22%
Jalen Mayden run for 70 yds for a TD (Jack Browning KICK)
- Q4 10:08FRES +16%
Malik Sherrod run for 1 yd for a TD (Jalen Moss pass to for Two-Point Conversion)
- Q1 9:19FRES +14%
Malik Sherrod run for 62 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
- Q2 2:58SDSU +11%
Jack Browning 41 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 0:00FRES +10%
Dylan Lynch 43 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. San Diego State?
Fresno State 18, San Diego State 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Total yards | 415 |
| 190 | Passing yards | 189 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 226 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 1-9 | 3rd down | 8-19 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 3-3 |
| 21/37 | Comp/Att | 17/26 |
| 5.1 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 7.9 | Yards per rush | 4.3 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1-8 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 19:09 | Possession | 40:51 |
Costliest call
Q3 13:30 FRES punt on 4th & 1 at FRES 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:54SDSULeo Kemp 5 Yd pass from Jalen Mayden (Jack Browning Kick)18–33
- Q4 10:08FRESMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Jalen Moss Pass to for Two-Point Conversion)18–26
- Q4 14:14SDSUJack Browning 33 Yd Field Goal 10–26
- Q3 8:55SDSUJaylon Armstead 1 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)10–23
- Q2 0:00FRESDylan Lynch 43 Yd Field Goal 10–16
- Q2 2:58SDSUJack Browning 41 Yd Field Goal 7–16
- Q2 8:03SDSUJalen Mayden 70 Yd Run (Jack Browning Kick)7–13
- Q2 14:56SDSUJack Browning 39 Yd Field Goal 7–6
- Q1 5:12SDSUJack Browning 32 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 9:19FRESMalik Sherrod 62 Yd Run (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SDSU Elo 1319, FRES Elo 1570 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SDSU +7.6 (32% to win) — 2.6 points clear of FRES's market line of +5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#55 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #70 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →San Diego State leads 19–13 · San Diego State has won 2 straight · 34% have been one-possession games
| FRES | SDSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.7 (#81) | CORE overall | -14.2 (#106) |
| -3 / +1 | offense / defense | -4 / +10 |
| 2.66 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.22 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +16 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →