Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SHSUTeam statsLT
- Q4 2:15SHSUKavian Gaither 45 Yd Interception Return (Colby Sessums Kick)42–27
- Q4 5:04LTKeith Willis Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)35–27
- Q4 9:49SHSUIssiah Nixon 1 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)35–20
- Q3 2:36LTCyrus Allen 35 Yd pass from Kyle Maxwell (Jacob Barnes Kick)28–20
- Q3 5:08SHSUKeegan Shoemaker 21 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)28–13
- Q3 6:41LTKeith Willis Jr. 5 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)21–13
- Q3 10:47SHSUJax Sherrard 8 Yd pass from Keegan Shoemaker (Colby Sessums Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:10LTJacob Barnes 32 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 10:30SHSUIssiah Nixon 3 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:12LTBuck Buchanan 53 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:11SHSUAdrian Murdaugh 52 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassKeegan Shoemaker 18/28, 269 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAdrian Murdaugh 9 CAR, 67 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Smith 6 REC, 115 YDS
- PassHank Bachmeier 29/42, 384 YDS, 2 INT
- RushCharvis Thornton 2 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecCyrus Allen 7 REC, 170 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSHSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,585 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:30SHSU +17%
Issiah Nixon run for 3 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
- Q1 13:11SHSU +17%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 48 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
- Q3 6:41LT +15%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
- Q3 2:36LT +14%
Kyle Maxwell pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
- Q3 10:47SHSU +13%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 8 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
- Q3 5:08SHSU +12%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 21 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Sam Houston vs. Louisiana Tech?
Sam Houston 42, Louisiana Tech 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SHSU) was correct.
| SHSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| 413 | Total yards | 524 |
| 269 | Passing yards | 419 |
| 144 | Rushing yards | 105 |
| 19 | First downs | 20 |
| 9-15 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 30/43 |
| 9.6 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 4.4 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 5-21 | Penalties | 5-50 |
| 28:37 | Possession | 31:23 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:39 LT go for it on 4th & 6 at SHSU 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:15SHSUKavian Gaither 45 Yd Interception Return (Colby Sessums Kick)42–27
- Q4 5:04LTKeith Willis Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)35–27
- Q4 9:49SHSUIssiah Nixon 1 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)35–20
- Q3 2:36LTCyrus Allen 35 Yd pass from Kyle Maxwell (Jacob Barnes Kick)28–20
- Q3 5:08SHSUKeegan Shoemaker 21 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)28–13
- Q3 6:41LTKeith Willis Jr. 5 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)21–13
- Q3 10:47SHSUJax Sherrard 8 Yd pass from Keegan Shoemaker (Colby Sessums Kick)21–6
- Q2 0:10LTJacob Barnes 32 Yd Field Goal 14–6
- Q2 10:30SHSUIssiah Nixon 3 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)14–3
- Q1 7:12LTBuck Buchanan 53 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 13:11SHSUAdrian Murdaugh 52 Yd Run (Colby Sessums Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LT Elo 1219, SHSU Elo 1304 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LT +1 (49% to win) — 9.5 points clear of SHSU's market line of -8.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#37 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #40 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| SHSU | LT | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.3 (#102) | CORE overall | -15.9 (#112) |
| -12 / +1 | offense / defense | -7 / +9 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 1.82 |
| 2.07 | allowed / drive | 2.77 |
| 33% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →