Maryland vs. Northwestern: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsNU
- Q4 3:42MDJeshaun Jones 18 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)27–33
- Q4 5:03NUJack Olsen 29 Yd Field Goal 20–33
- Q4 9:19NUJack Olsen 19 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 4:45MDJack Howes 22 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q3 13:29NUJack Olsen 47 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 0:10MDJack Howes 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 1:18NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 12:17NUCam Porter 3 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Jack Olsen Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:42NUBryce Kirtz 23 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Jack Olsen Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:34MDRoman Hemby 24 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:50NUCam Porter 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:44MDTai Felton 8 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassTaulia Tagovailoa 30/47, 274 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushColby McDonald 5 CAR, 43 YDS
- RecJeshaun Jones 9 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBrendan Sullivan 16/23, 265 YDS, 2 TD
- RushBrendan Sullivan 14 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecJoseph Himon II 2 REC, 67 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,296 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 12:17NU +21%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q4 9:19NU +17%
Jack Olsen 19 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 3:42MD +16%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
- Q4 1:25NU +15%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NU at NU5 (team loss of 3)
- Q1 2:42NU +14%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
- Q4 3:32NU +13%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the NU 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Northwestern?
Maryland 27, Northwestern 33.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MD, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| 391 | Total yards | 364 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 265 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 99 |
| 25 | First downs | 19 |
| 6-15 | 3rd down | 2-10 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 30/47 | Comp/Att | 16/23 |
| 5.8 | Yards per pass | 11.5 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 2.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-69 | Penalties | 8-69 |
| 29:13 | Possession | 30:47 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:19 NU field goal on 4th & 1 at MD 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:42MDJeshaun Jones 18 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)27–33
- Q4 5:03NUJack Olsen 29 Yd Field Goal 20–33
- Q4 9:19NUJack Olsen 19 Yd Field Goal 20–30
- Q3 4:45MDJack Howes 22 Yd Field Goal 20–27
- Q3 13:29NUJack Olsen 47 Yd Field Goal 17–27
- Q2 0:10MDJack Howes 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 1:18NUJack Olsen 33 Yd Field Goal 14–24
- Q2 12:17NUCam Porter 3 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Jack Olsen Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:42NUBryce Kirtz 23 Yd pass from Brendan Sullivan (Jack Olsen Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:34MDRoman Hemby 24 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:50NUCam Porter 1 Yd Run (Jack Olsen Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:44MDTai Felton 8 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Jack Howes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NU Elo 1341, MD Elo 1687 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NU +11.4 (23% to win) — 2.6 points clear of NU's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 117 in 2023 by biggest miss · #14 of 127 in 2023 by longest odds.
The 2023 upset archive →| MD | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.7 (#17) | CORE overall | -3.1 (#78) |
| +8 / -9 | offense / defense | -7 / -4 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.87 |
| 2.03 | allowed / drive | 2.02 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +11 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →