#6Brendan Sullivan

QB·Northwestern·2023

Brendan Sullivan is a Dual-Threat QB for Northwestern. Brendan's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 150 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brendan Sullivan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

63/99 Comp/Att714 Pass yards6 Pass TD2 INT63.6% Comp %

Rushing

160 Rush yards2 Rush TD75 Carries2.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat80
Consistency60
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency60th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Maryland (SP+ 11).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Rutgers	L7-24	3.5	3/4	13	1	0	89.1	11	0	0.27
3	@Duke	L14-38	9.4	5/6	40	0	0	96.3	22	1	0.45
5	vsPenn State	L13-41	23.5	2/6	8	0	1	11.9	25	0	-0.06
6	vsHoward	W23-20	—	13/18	131	2	0	25.8	38	1	0.28
8	@Nebraska	L9-17	0.3	12/23	176	0	1	16.0	-16	0	-0.02
9	vsMaryland	W33-27	11.0	16/23	265	2	0	82.5	56	0	0.57
10	vsIowa	L7-10	5.8	12/19	81	1	0	42.4	24	0	-0.16

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

39.1%

Passing plays

53.8%

Rushing plays

24.4%

Standard downs

34.2%

Passing downs

48.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.04
Passing downs: 0.43
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.15 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).