Kansas State vs. Oklahoma: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KSUTeam statsOU
- Q4 4:32KSUBlake Lynch 50 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 8:17KSUDeuce Vaughn 28 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)35–35
- Q4 12:28KSUSkylar Thompson 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)28–35
- Q3 1:36KSUSkylar Thompson 2 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)21–35
- Q3 2:46OUSeth McGowan 5 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)14–35
- Q3 5:00KSUSkylar Thompson 1 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:35OUJeremiah Hall 21 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:44OUMarvin Mims 9 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:10KSUChabastin Taylor 39 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:50OUDrake Stoops 32 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:29OUMarvin Mims 11 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 30% success rate
- PassSkylar Thompson 18/25, 334 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeuce Vaughn 8 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeuce Vaughn 4 REC, 129 YDS
- PassSpencer Rattler 30/41, 387 YDS, 4 TD, 3 INT
- RushSeth McGowan 13 CAR, 73 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDrake Stoops 3 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsOU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 8:17KSU +38%
Deuce Vaughn run for 38 yds for a TD, (Blake Lynch KICK)
- Q4 2:44KSU +31%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Briley Moore for 7 yds to the KanSt 26
- Q4 4:32KSU +27%
Blake Lynch 50 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:34KSU +24%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 44
- Q4 4:32OU +23%
Spencer Rattler pass complete to Brayden Willis for 3 yds to the Okla 28
- Q4 6:32KSU +20%
Skylar Thompson pass complete to Phillip Brooks for 23 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of Kansas State vs. Oklahoma?
Kansas State 38, Oklahoma 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KSU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| 390 | Total yards | 517 |
| 334 | Passing yards | 387 |
| 56 | Rushing yards | 130 |
| 10 | First downs | 28 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 7-12 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/25 | Comp/Att | 30/41 |
| 13.4 | Yards per pass | 9.4 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 13-108 | Penalties | 10-75 |
| 27:52 | Possession | 32:08 |
Costliest call
Q1 15:00 KSU punt on 4th & 2 at KSU 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.54 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:32KSUBlake Lynch 50 Yd Field Goal 38–35
- Q4 8:17KSUDeuce Vaughn 28 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)35–35
- Q4 12:28KSUSkylar Thompson 4 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)28–35
- Q3 1:36KSUSkylar Thompson 2 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)21–35
- Q3 2:46OUSeth McGowan 5 Yd Run (Gabe Brkic Kick)14–35
- Q3 5:00KSUSkylar Thompson 1 Yd Run (Blake Lynch Kick)14–28
- Q3 6:35OUJeremiah Hall 21 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)7–28
- Q2 0:44OUMarvin Mims 9 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)7–21
- Q2 5:10KSUChabastin Taylor 39 Yd pass from Skylar Thompson (Blake Lynch Kick)7–14
- Q2 14:50OUDrake Stoops 32 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–14
- Q1 5:29OUMarvin Mims 11 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Gabe Brkic Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OU Elo 1771, KSU Elo 1611 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OU -8.8 (73% to win) — 18.7 points clear of KSU's market line of -27.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #2 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds · #1 of 47 in 2020 by biggest poll gap.
The 2020 upset archive →Oklahoma leads 76–22–4 · 27% have been one-possession games
| KSU | OU | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.9 (#74) | CORE overall | +24.9 (#4) |
| +1 / +3 | offense / defense | +13 / -11 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 3.23 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.82 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →