Troy vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TROYTeam statsARST
- Q4 0:26TROYKimani Vidal 8 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)38–10
- Q4 7:34TROYDarrell Starling 20 Yd Fumble Return (Evan Legassey Kick)31–10
- Q3 4:55ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 3 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:41TROYJacob Free 6 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)24–3
- Q2 7:07TROYEvan Legassey 35 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:10ARSTBlake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 5:39TROYReggie Todd 34 Yd pass from Jacob Free (Evan Legassey Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:35TROYLuke Whittemore 29 Yd pass from Jacob Free (Evan Legassey Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ARST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TROY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.6 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassJacob Free 33/45, 419 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKimani Vidal 17 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKaylon Geiger 8 REC, 126 YDS
- PassLayne Hatcher 11/20, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLincoln Pare 12 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecDahu Green 4 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:35TROY +17%
Jacob Free pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 29 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
- Q1 5:39TROY +14%
Jacob Free pass complete to Reggie Todd for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
- Q2 0:41TROY +7%
Jacob Free run for 6 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)
- Q2 7:07TROY +6%
Evan Legassey 35 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 4:55ARST +6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jonathan Adams Jr. for 3 yds for a TD (Blake Grupe KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Troy vs. Arkansas State?
Troy 38, Arkansas State 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 487 | Total yards | 379 |
| 419 | Passing yards | 271 |
| 68 | Rushing yards | 108 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 9-17 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 33/45 | Comp/Att | 28/49 |
| 9.3 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 1.9 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-41 | Penalties | 5-51 |
| 33:10 | Possession | 26:50 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:15 TROY punt on 4th & 4 at ARST 36. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:26TROYKimani Vidal 8 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)38–10
- Q4 7:34TROYDarrell Starling 20 Yd Fumble Return (Evan Legassey Kick)31–10
- Q3 4:55ARSTJonathan Adams Jr. 3 Yd pass from Layne Hatcher (Blake Grupe Kick)24–10
- Q2 0:41TROYJacob Free 6 Yd Run (Evan Legassey Kick)24–3
- Q2 7:07TROYEvan Legassey 35 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q2 9:10ARSTBlake Grupe 39 Yd Field Goal 14–3
- Q1 5:39TROYReggie Todd 34 Yd pass from Jacob Free (Evan Legassey Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:35TROYLuke Whittemore 29 Yd pass from Jacob Free (Evan Legassey Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1330, TROY Elo 1412 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST +0.9 (49% to win) — 4.4 points clear of TROY's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #77 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| TROY | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| +2.5 (#53) | CORE overall | -5.6 (#85) |
| -4 / -7 | offense / defense | +2 / +8 |
| 2.06 | points / drive | 2.50 |
| 2.16 | allowed / drive | 2.95 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +15 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →