Nevada vs. Fresno State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsFRES
- Q4 0:12NEVToa Taua 3 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)35–28
- Q3 1:49NEVDevonte Lee 25 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)28–28
- Q3 7:27NEVRomeo Doubs 5 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)21–28
- Q3 10:20FRESDerrion Grim 3 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:16FRESEmoryie Edwards 12 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–21
- Q2 7:27FRESKeric Wheatfall 17 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Cesar Silva Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:41FRESRonnie Rivers 34 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:14NEVRomeo Doubs 1 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:58NEVElijah Cooks 29 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassCarson Strong 20/31, 154 YDS, 3 TD
- RushToa Taua 20 CAR, 135 YDS, 1 TD
- RecElijah Cooks 5 REC, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJorge Reyna 27/37, 261 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushJosh Hokit 7 CAR, 32 YDS
- RecRonnie Rivers 7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:10NEV +48%
Toa Taua run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 3
- Q4 0:12NEV +27%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds for a TD TALTON, Brandon kick attempt good, PENALTY NEV false start (LANDIS, Moses) 5 yards to the FS8, NO PLAY. (Brandon Talton KICK)
- Q3 1:49NEV +26%
Devonte Lee run for 25 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
- Q4 1:46FRES +23%
Blake Cusick punt for 46 yds, Ben Putman returns for 24 yds to the FrsSt 25
- Q1 2:14NEV +21%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
- Q4 6:49NEV +21%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 28
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Fresno State?
Nevada 35, Fresno State 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NEV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| 408 | Total yards | 331 |
| 154 | Passing yards | 278 |
| 254 | Rushing yards | 53 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 8-14 |
| 3-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 20/31 | Comp/Att | 28/38 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 7.5 | Yards per rush | 2.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-50 | Penalties | 7-61 |
| 31:29 | Possession | 28:31 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 NEV go for it on 4th & 8 at NEV 28. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:12NEVToa Taua 3 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)35–28
- Q3 1:49NEVDevonte Lee 25 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)28–28
- Q3 7:27NEVRomeo Doubs 5 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)21–28
- Q3 10:20FRESDerrion Grim 3 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–28
- Q2 5:16FRESEmoryie Edwards 12 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–21
- Q2 7:27FRESKeric Wheatfall 17 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Cesar Silva Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:41FRESRonnie Rivers 34 Yd pass from Jorge Reyna (Cesar Silva Kick)14–7
- Q1 2:14NEVRomeo Doubs 1 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)14–0
- Q1 11:58NEVElijah Cooks 29 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FRES Elo 1528, NEV Elo 1135 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FRES -18.1 (88% to win) — 5.1 points clear of FRES's market line of -13. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#58 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #29 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →Fresno State leads 19–14 · Fresno State has won 5 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| NEV | FRES | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.4 (#109) | CORE overall | -0.5 (#66) |
| -9 / +6 | offense / defense | +2 / +2 |
| 1.65 | points / drive | 2.38 |
| 2.59 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 37% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →