BYU vs. Utah State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BYUTeam statsUSU
- Q4 9:31BYULopini Katoa 6 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)42–14
- Q3 7:12BYUGunner Romney 1 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)35–14
- Q3 11:47BYUMicah Simon 11 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:34USUGerold Bright 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)21–14
- Q2 2:33BYUJaren Hall 7 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:53BYUJaren Hall 16 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:18USUSiaosi Mariner 26 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:22BYUAleva Hifo 6 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJaren Hall 12/16, 214 YDS
- RushSione Finau 15 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecLopini Katoa 4 REC, 129 YDS
- PassJordan Love 29/49, 394 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushGerold Bright 12 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJordan Nathan 7 REC, 133 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBYU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:53BYU +23%
Jaren Hall run for 16 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
- Q3 11:47BYU +22%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds for a TD
- Q2 2:33BYU +21%
Jaren Hall run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
- Q2 0:34USU +20%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q1 0:18USU +19%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 26 yds for a TD (Dominik Eberle KICK)
- Q1 9:22BYU +19%
Aleva Hifo run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of BYU vs. Utah State?
BYU 42, Utah State 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BYU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| 639 | Total yards | 521 |
| 418 | Passing yards | 394 |
| 221 | Rushing yards | 127 |
| 31 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 9-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 23/33 | Comp/Att | 29/49 |
| 12.7 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 5.3 | Yards per rush | 3.8 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 5-37 | Penalties | 8-55 |
| 35:14 | Possession | 24:46 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:31 BYU punt on 4th & 1 at BYU 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:31BYULopini Katoa 6 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)42–14
- Q3 7:12BYUGunner Romney 1 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)35–14
- Q3 11:47BYUMicah Simon 11 Yd pass from Baylor Romney (Jake Oldroyd Kick)28–14
- Q2 0:34USUGerold Bright 1 Yd Run (Dominik Eberle Kick)21–14
- Q2 2:33BYUJaren Hall 7 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)21–7
- Q2 11:53BYUJaren Hall 16 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:18USUSiaosi Mariner 26 Yd pass from Jordan Love (Dominik Eberle Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:22BYUAleva Hifo 6 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1580, BYU Elo 1467 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -6.9 (69% to win) — 3.9 points clear of USU's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #91 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds.
The 2019 upset archive →BYU leads 51–37–3 · BYU has won 3 straight · 29% have been one-possession games
| BYU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#61) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#94) |
| +2 / +2 | offense / defense | -6 / +2 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 1.70 |
| 2.14 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →