UCLA vs. Washington State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCLATeam statsWSU
- Q4 1:07UCLADemetric Felton 15 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)67–63
- Q4 6:11WSUMax Borghi 65 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)60–63
- Q4 7:31UCLAKyle Philips 69 Yd Punt Return (JJ Molson Kick)60–56
- Q4 8:10UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 3 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)53–56
- Q4 10:08WSUEasop Winston Jr. 33 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)46–56
- Q4 14:28UCLADevin Asiasi 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Chase Cota for Two-Point Conversion)46–49
- Q3 1:21UCLADemetric Felton 94 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)38–49
- Q3 3:33UCLAChase Cota 37 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)31–49
- Q3 3:48UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)24–49
- Q3 6:52WSUDezmon Patmon 6 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–49
- Q3 8:09WSURenard Bell 35 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–42
- Q2 0:27WSUDavontavean Martin 7 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–35
- Q2 3:51WSUEasop Winston Jr. 3 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–28
- Q2 7:58UCLADemetric Felton 100 Yd Kickoff Return (JJ Molson Kick)17–21
- Q2 8:14WSUTravell Harris 10 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)10–21
- Q2 13:02WSUEasop Winston Jr. 28 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:49UCLAJJ Molson 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:14WSUEasop Winston Jr. 4 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11UCLAJoshua Kelley 14 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UCLA played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.8
- PassDorian Thompson-Robinson 25/38, 507 YDS, 5 TD, 1 INT
- RushJoshua Kelley 20 CAR, 90 YDS
- RecDemetric Felton 7 REC, 150 YDS, 2 TD
- PassAnthony Gordon 41/61, 570 YDS, 9 TD, 2 INT
- RushMax Borghi 15 CAR, 123 YDS
- RecEasop Winston Jr. 10 REC, 114 YDS, 4 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWSU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:07UCLA +74%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson pass complete to Demetric Felton for 15 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q4 6:11WSU +44%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Max Borghi for 65 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
- Q4 7:31UCLA +40%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 44 yds, Kyle Philips returns for 69 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
- Q4 8:10UCLA +21%
Dorian Thompson-Robinson 3 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)
- Q4 2:27WSU +20%
Anthony Gordon pass complete to Easop Winston Jr. for 14 yds Easop Winston Jr. fumbled, forced by Krys Barnes, recovered by UCLA Josh Woods
- Q4 14:28UCLA +18%
Devin Asiasi 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Chase Cota for Two-Point Conversion)
FAQ
What was the final score of UCLA vs. Washington State?
UCLA 67, Washington State 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked WSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UCLA | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 657 | Total yards | 720 |
| 507 | Passing yards | 570 |
| 150 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 28 | First downs | 28 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 8-13 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/38 | Comp/Att | 41/61 |
| 13.3 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 10-105 | Penalties | 7-38 |
| 29:27 | Possession | 30:33 |
Costliest call
Q3 1:34 WSU punt on 4th & 4 at UCLA 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:07UCLADemetric Felton 15 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)67–63
- Q4 6:11WSUMax Borghi 65 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)60–63
- Q4 7:31UCLAKyle Philips 69 Yd Punt Return (JJ Molson Kick)60–56
- Q4 8:10UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 3 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)53–56
- Q4 10:08WSUEasop Winston Jr. 33 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)46–56
- Q4 14:28UCLADevin Asiasi 7 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Dorian Thompson-Robinson Pass to Chase Cota for Two-Point Conversion)46–49
- Q3 1:21UCLADemetric Felton 94 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)38–49
- Q3 3:33UCLAChase Cota 37 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)31–49
- Q3 3:48UCLADorian Thompson-Robinson 1 Yd Run (JJ Molson Kick)24–49
- Q3 6:52WSUDezmon Patmon 6 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–49
- Q3 8:09WSURenard Bell 35 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–42
- Q2 0:27WSUDavontavean Martin 7 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–35
- Q2 3:51WSUEasop Winston Jr. 3 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)17–28
- Q2 7:58UCLADemetric Felton 100 Yd Kickoff Return (JJ Molson Kick)17–21
- Q2 8:14WSUTravell Harris 10 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)10–21
- Q2 13:02WSUEasop Winston Jr. 28 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)10–14
- Q1 4:49UCLAJJ Molson 31 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 10:14WSUEasop Winston Jr. 4 Yd pass from Anthony Gordon (Blake Mazza Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:11UCLAJoshua Kelley 14 Yd pass from Dorian Thompson-Robinson (JJ Molson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (WSU Elo 1759, UCLA Elo 1370 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects WSU -18 (88% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#45 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #12 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #15 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →UCLA leads 42–20–1 · UCLA has won 2 straight · 37% have been one-possession games
| UCLA | WSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.3 (#102) | CORE overall | +0.7 (#58) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | +9 / +9 |
| 2.03 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 2.84 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 19% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +32 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →