Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
OKSTTeam statsTTU
- Q4 3:27OKSTTylan Wallace 10 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–45
- Q4 5:16OKSTChuba Hubbard 7 Yd Run (Chuba Hubbard Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–45
- Q4 8:26TTUErik Ezukanma 56 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Jett Duffey Pass to T.J. Vasher for Two-Point Conversion)21–45
- Q4 13:53TTUTrey Wolff 26 Yd Field Goal 21–37
- Q3 2:48OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:48TTUDalton Rigdon 8 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)14–34
- Q3 12:00OKSTJordan McCray 73 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–27
- Q3 13:02TTUT.J. Vasher 21 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)7–27
- Q2 0:30OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–20
- Q2 10:21TTUKeSean Carter 14 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)0–20
- Q1 1:03TTUTrey Wolff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 5:01TTUJett Duffey 16 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:49TTUTrey Wolff 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- OKST played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TTU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.2 vs 3rd & 5.8
- OKST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 13% explosive on a 37% success rate
- PassSpencer Sanders 22/37, 290 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushChuba Hubbard 34 CAR, 156 YDS, 3 TD
- RecTylan Wallace 11 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJett Duffey 26/44, 424 YDS, 4 TD
- RushSaRodorick Thompson Jr. 12 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecT.J. Vasher 5 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTTU up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 5:01TTU +19%
Jett Duffey run for 16 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q2 10:21TTU +13%
Jett Duffey pass complete to KeSean Carter for 14 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q2 0:30OKST +12%
Chuba Hubbard run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q3 13:02TTU +12%
Jett Duffey pass complete to T.J. Vasher for 21 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
- Q3 12:00OKST +12%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jordan McCray for 73 yds for a TD, (Matt Ammendola KICK)
- Q3 5:48TTU +9%
Jett Duffey pass complete to Dalton Rigdon for 8 yds for a TD, (Trey Wolff KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech?
Oklahoma State 35, Texas Tech 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| OKST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| 509 | Total yards | 586 |
| 290 | Passing yards | 424 |
| 219 | Rushing yards | 162 |
| 26 | First downs | 29 |
| 5-19 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 22/37 | Comp/Att | 26/44 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 9.6 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 4.6 |
| 5 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-56 | Penalties | 7-70 |
| 31:56 | Possession | 28:04 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:48 TTU punt on 4th & 6 at OKST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:27OKSTTylan Wallace 10 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)35–45
- Q4 5:16OKSTChuba Hubbard 7 Yd Run (Chuba Hubbard Run for Two-Point Conversion)29–45
- Q4 8:26TTUErik Ezukanma 56 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Jett Duffey Pass to T.J. Vasher for Two-Point Conversion)21–45
- Q4 13:53TTUTrey Wolff 26 Yd Field Goal 21–37
- Q3 2:48OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)21–34
- Q3 5:48TTUDalton Rigdon 8 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)14–34
- Q3 12:00OKSTJordan McCray 73 Yd pass from Spencer Sanders (Matt Ammendola Kick)14–27
- Q3 13:02TTUT.J. Vasher 21 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)7–27
- Q2 0:30OKSTChuba Hubbard 3 Yd Run (Matt Ammendola Kick)7–20
- Q2 10:21TTUKeSean Carter 14 Yd pass from Jett Duffey (Trey Wolff Kick)0–20
- Q1 1:03TTUTrey Wolff 27 Yd Field Goal 0–13
- Q1 5:01TTUJett Duffey 16 Yd Run (Trey Wolff Kick)0–10
- Q1 12:49TTUTrey Wolff 38 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TTU Elo 1498, OKST Elo 1682 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TTU +5 (38% to win) — 4.5 points clear of TTU's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2019
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#60 of 105 in 2019 by biggest miss · #42 of 124 in 2019 by longest odds · #23 of 51 in 2019 by biggest poll gap.
The 2019 upset archive →Texas Tech leads 25–24–3 · Texas Tech has won 2 straight · 46% have been one-possession games
| OKST | TTU | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.6 (#36) | CORE overall | -3.7 (#74) |
| +5 / -3 | offense / defense | +1 / +5 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.34 |
| 2.23 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -7 | pass over expected | +11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →