Florida vs. Georgia: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FLATeam statsUGA
- Q4 0:03UGABrendan Douglas 1 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)38–20
- Q4 2:11FLAKelvin Taylor 65 Yd Run (Austin Hardin Kick)38–13
- Q4 11:06UGANick Chubb 10 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q4 13:49FLAMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Austin Hardin Kick)31–7
- Q3 5:09FLAFrancisco Velez 21 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 12:07FLAMatt Jones 44 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:06FLAKelvin Taylor 2 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)14–7
- Q2 8:25FLAMichael McNeely 21 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:02UGANick Chubb 39 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTreon Harris 3/6, 27 YDS
- RushKelvin Taylor 25 CAR, 197 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLatroy Pittman 1 REC, 13 YDS
- PassHutson Mason 26/41, 319 YDS, 1 TD
- RushNick Chubb 21 CAR, 156 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Bennett 6 REC, 60 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsFLA up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 12:07FLA +26%
Matt Jones run for 44 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)
- Q2 5:06FLA +21%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)
- Q3 5:20FLA +13%
Matt Jones run for 10 yds to the Geo 4
- Q2 8:25FLA +13%
Michael McNeely run for 21 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)
- Q3 5:09FLA +12%
Francisco Velez 21 yd FG GOOD
- Q1 9:02UGA +9%
Nick Chubb run for 39 yds for a TD, (Marshall Morgan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Florida vs. Georgia?
Florida 38, Georgia 20.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UGA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 445 | Total yards | 460 |
| 27 | Passing yards | 319 |
| 418 | Rushing yards | 141 |
| 19 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 8-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 3/6 | Comp/Att | 26/41 |
| 4.5 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 7.0 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 32:41 | Possession | 27:19 |
Costliest call
Q1 4:55 UGA punt on 4th & 1 at UGA 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:03UGABrendan Douglas 1 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)38–20
- Q4 2:11FLAKelvin Taylor 65 Yd Run (Austin Hardin Kick)38–13
- Q4 11:06UGANick Chubb 10 Yd pass from Hutson Mason (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)31–13
- Q4 13:49FLAMatt Jones 1 Yd Run (Austin Hardin Kick)31–7
- Q3 5:09FLAFrancisco Velez 21 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q3 12:07FLAMatt Jones 44 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)21–7
- Q2 5:06FLAKelvin Taylor 2 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)14–7
- Q2 8:25FLAMichael McNeely 21 Yd Run (Francisco Velez Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:02UGANick Chubb 39 Yd Run (Marshall Morgan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UGA Elo 2015, FLA Elo 1612 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects UGA -16.1 (86% to win) — 5.1 points clear of UGA's market line of -11. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #40 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →Georgia leads 58–44–2 · Georgia has won 5 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| FLA | UGA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | points / drive | 3.29 |
| 1.21 | allowed / drive | 1.76 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →