Western Kentucky vs. Marshall: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Western Kentucky6-5

▸

Marshall11-0

Final/OT

Joan C. Edwards StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
WKU	28	21	0	10	8	67
MRSH	21	21	7	10	7	66

WKUTeam statsMRSH

738Total yards708

516Pass417

222Rush291

37First downs37

6-123rd down7-11

2Turnovers4

33:03Possession26:57

OT 0:00WKUJared Dangerfield 25 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Brandon Doughty Pass to Willie McNeal for Two-Point Conversion)67–66
OT 0:00MRSHHyleck Foster 25 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)59–66
Q4 0:39MRSHEric Frohnapfel 5 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)59–59
Q4 5:32MRSHJustin Haig 17 Yd Field Goal 59–52
Q4 9:11WKUJared Dangerfield 35 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)59–49
Q4 12:55WKUGarrett Schwettman 21 Yd Field Goal 52–49
Q3 0:58MRSHSteward Butler 22 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)49–49
Q2 1:24MRSHDavonte Allen 33 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)49–42
Q2 2:12WKUTyler Higbee 7 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)49–35
Q2 7:23MRSHSteward Butler 48 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)42–35
Q2 7:50MRSHEric Frohnapfel 2 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)42–28
Q2 10:37WKUJoel German 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)42–21
Q2 13:13WKULeon Allen 10 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)35–21
Q1 2:27MRSHDavonte Allen 40 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)28–21
Q1 4:09WKUTyler Higbee 20 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)28–14
Q1 7:02MRSHHyleck Foster 14 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)21–14
Q1 8:45WKUTaywan Taylor 75 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)21–7
Q1 8:56MRSHTommy Shuler 26 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)14–7
Q1 11:23WKULeon Allen 17 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)14–0
Q1 11:58WKUTyler Higbee 11 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

MRSH −16

market MRSH −23.5

Biggest swing

MRSH +80%

Q4 0:04

Against the number

WKU covered

line MRSH −23.5

MRSH favored ↑50%WKU favored ↓

GridpexWKU 100%

Closing line

MRSH −23.5

Closing total

75.5

Model line

MRSH −16

Actual result

WKU 67 – 66 MRSH

consensus, liveMRSH −230.5 toward WKU

Western Kentucky

PassBrandon Doughty 34/50, 491 YDS, 8 TD, 2 INT
RushLeon Allen 33 CAR, 237 YDS, 1 TD
RecTaywan Taylor 4 REC, 122 YDS, 1 TD

Marshall

PassRakeem Cato 29/46, 417 YDS, 7 TD, 4 INT
RushSteward Butler 24 CAR, 233 YDS, 2 TD
RecDavonte Allen 6 REC, 141 YDS, 2 TD

20.1sper snap · faster the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

170

Points / snap

0.78

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

50%

MRSH win rate

How often the home team won from here

Most comparable games

LSam Houston vs Air Force3-13 LEastern Kentucky vs Western Carolina24-27 LArkansas vs BYU31-38 LAbilene Christian vs Incarnate Word10-24 WSt. Thomas (MN) vs Morehead State35-28

Q4 0:04MRSH +80%
Rakeem Cato pass incomplete to Deon-Tay McManus
OT 0:00WKU +80%
Jared Dangerfield 25 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Brandon Doughty Pass to Willie McNeal for Two-Point Conversion)
Q4 0:39MRSH +75%
Rakeem Cato pass complete to Eric Frohnapfel for 5 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)
Q4 0:19WKU +64%
Brandon Doughty pass intercepted Taj Letman return for 12 yds to the Marsh 47
Q4 9:11WKU +34%
Brandon Doughty pass complete to Jared Dangerfield for 35 yds for a TD, (Garrett Schwettman KICK)
Q3 0:58MRSH +29%
Steward Butler run for 22 yds for a TD, (Justin Haig KICK)

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Marshall?

Western Kentucky 67, Marshall 66.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked MRSH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

WKU

MRSH

57%

Success rate

57%

0.65

EPA / pass

0.43

0.24

EPA / rush

0.62

59%

Early-down success

56%

52%

Pass success

52%

67%

Rush success

64%

17%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

23%

15%

Stuffed rush rate

62%

Pass rate

60%

5.9

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.5

WKU

5.9 yards to go on 3rd down

87 scrimmage snaps

MRSH

6.5 yards to go on 3rd down

83 scrimmage snaps

WKU		MRSH
738	Total yards	708
516	Passing yards	417
222	Rushing yards	291
37	First downs	37
6-12	3rd down	7-11
0-0	4th down	0-0
35/51	Comp/Att	29/46
10.1	Yards per pass	9.1
6.3	Yards per rush	8.1
2	Turnovers	4
4-38	Penalties	6-59
33:03	Possession	26:57

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

WKU 10/17 scoring drives← own end zone →MRSH 10/17 scoring drives

WKUTD9 pl, 62 yds· opp 35Q1

MRSHINT2 pl, 0 yds· opp 35Q1

WKUTD1 pl, 17 yds· opp 17Q1

MRSHTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

WKUTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHTD5 pl, 68 yds· opp 35Q1

WKUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

MRSHTD4 pl, 64 yds· opp 35Q1

WKUPUNT6 pl, 40 yds· opp 35Q1

MRSHINT3 pl, 6 yds· own 13Q2

WKUTD4 pl, 31 yds· opp 31Q2

MRSHINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q2

WKUTD6 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q2

MRSHTD8 pl, 69 yds· opp 35Q2

WKUINT2 pl, 0 yds· opp 35Q2

MRSHTD1 pl, 48 yds· opp 48Q2

WKUPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· opp 35Q2

MRSHPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 34Q2

WKUTD3 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q2

MRSHTD3 pl, 57 yds· opp 35Q2

WKUEND4 pl, 20 yds· opp 20Q2

MRSHPUNT8 pl, 23 yds· opp 35Q3

WKUMISS17 pl, 81 yds· own 1Q3

MRSHTD8 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q3

WKUFG9 pl, 69 yds· opp 35Q3

MRSHINT4 pl, 40 yds· opp 35Q4

WKUTD5 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q4

MRSHFG9 pl, 58 yds· opp 35Q4

WKUPUNT4 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q4

MRSHTD12 pl, 82 yds· own 18Q4

WKUINT3 pl, 19 yds· own 25Q4

MRSHEND2 pl, 13 yds· own 47Q4

MRSHTD2 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT

WKUTD2 pl, 25 yds· opp 25OT

OT 0:00WKUJared Dangerfield 25 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Brandon Doughty Pass to Willie McNeal for Two-Point Conversion)67–66
OT 0:00MRSHHyleck Foster 25 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)59–66
Q4 0:39MRSHEric Frohnapfel 5 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)59–59
Q4 5:32MRSHJustin Haig 17 Yd Field Goal 59–52
Q4 9:11WKUJared Dangerfield 35 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)59–49
Q4 12:55WKUGarrett Schwettman 21 Yd Field Goal 52–49
Q3 0:58MRSHSteward Butler 22 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)49–49
Q2 1:24MRSHDavonte Allen 33 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)49–42
Q2 2:12WKUTyler Higbee 7 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)49–35
Q2 7:23MRSHSteward Butler 48 Yd Run (Justin Haig Kick)42–35
Q2 7:50MRSHEric Frohnapfel 2 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)42–28
Q2 10:37WKUJoel German 9 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)42–21
Q2 13:13WKULeon Allen 10 Yd Run (Garrett Schwettman Kick)35–21
Q1 2:27MRSHDavonte Allen 40 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)28–21
Q1 4:09WKUTyler Higbee 20 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)28–14
Q1 7:02MRSHHyleck Foster 14 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)21–14
Q1 8:45WKUTaywan Taylor 75 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)21–7
Q1 8:56MRSHTommy Shuler 26 Yd pass from Rakeem Cato (Justin Haig Kick)14–7
Q1 11:23WKULeon Allen 17 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)14–0
Q1 11:58WKUTyler Higbee 11 Yd pass from Brandon Doughty (Garrett Schwettman Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

MRSH 1854

WKU 1514

Projected spread

MRSH -16

incl. home edge

Model pick

MRSH

85% to win

Market spread

MRSH -23.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

WKU

7.5 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

85%

MRSH (no market)

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1854, WKU Elo 1514 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -16 (85% to win) — 7.5 points clear of WKU's market line of -23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation

Season form — 2014

nationally ranked

WKU2014 season · national rank shownMRSH

534.64th

Total yards / game

559.22nd

7.05th

Yards / play

7.61st

374.32nd

Passing yards / game

287.318th

160.369th

Rushing yards / game

271.98th

51.1%5th

3rd down %

51.1%6th

509.9123rd

Yards allowed / game

357.132nd

48.0%122nd

3rd down % allowed

30.9%7th

+537th

Turnover margin

-273rd

5.858th

Penalties / game

8.5123rd

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Western Kentucky were +23 — a 8% shot

#56 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #2 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.

The 2014 upset archive →

The series8 meetings since 2014

The series is level at 4–4 · 50% have been one-possession games

Opponent-adjusted profile2014

WKU		MRSH
3.22	points / drive	3.34
2.72	allowed / drive	1.68
22%	three-and-outs	22%

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

WKUTeam statsMRSH

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Marshall?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2014

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Western Kentucky vs. Marshall: Final Score & Recap

WKUTeam statsMRSH

How the model called it

What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Marshall?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups