South Alabama vs. Marshall Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where South Alabama gets at Marshall: 28th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 97th at stuffing runs at the line. Where Marshall gets at South Alabama: 23rd at throwing it, against a unit 128th at defending the pass. South Alabama is also 54th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 104th.
How
USAattacks
MRSH
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 25% this season, 2 games
USA13.8%#28 of 138MRSH5.0%#97 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USA4.15#54 of 138MRSH4.83#104 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · 24% this season, 2 games
USA+0.41#62 of 138MRSH+0.54#111 of 138
HowMRSHattacksUSA
- 1
Throw it
throwing it · projected · 1 game in
MRSH+0.28#23 of 138USA+0.56#128 of 138 - 2
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected · 1 game in
MRSH47%#31 of 138USA41%#92 of 138
The two teams
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 28th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 137th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 128th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.3% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 22% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#137 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#128 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.11#105 of 138
Marshall
Marshall is in year 2 under Tony Gibson. The strengths are offensive, led by 20th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 111th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 111th at defending the pass.
Marshall has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 20% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air41%#20 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down47%#31 of 138
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.10#111 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.54#111 of 138
- Offenserunning it-0.18#105 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MRSH Elo 1388, USA Elo 1391 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MRSH -15.7 (84% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USA99th111thMRSHMRSH134th132ndUSAThrough the air
USA71st128thMRSHMRSH125th65thUSAOn the ground
USA35th90thMRSHMRSH131st82ndUSAStaying on the field
USA32nd86thMRSHMRSH132nd48thUSATaking care of it
USA1st108thMRSHMRSH75th76thUSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USA | MRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| -4.1 (#86) | CORE overall | -9.8 (#109) |
| +8 / +12 | offense / defense | -2 / +8 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 0.61 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 2.96 |
| 0% | three-and-outs | 48% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Alabama vs. Marshall?
Gridpex's model favors Marshall with a 84% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Alabama vs. Marshall?
The model projects Marshall by 15.7.
What time is South Alabama vs. Marshall and what channel is it on?
Tue, Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET, at Joan C. Edwards Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →