San Diego State vs. Colorado State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where San Diego State gets at Colorado State: 11th in the push up front, against a unit 131st at holding the line of scrimmage. Colorado State projects no clear way in against San Diego State. San Diego State is also 17th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 132nd.
How
SDSUattacks
CSU
- 1
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
SDSU#11 of 138CSU#131 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
SDSU#17 of 138CSU#132 of 138 - 3
Run it
running it · projected
SDSU#18 of 138CSU#124 of 138
The two teams
San Diego State
San Diego State runs it: Sean Lewis's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 10th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 113th at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−0.0%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
San Diego State has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#10projected
- Defensestaying on schedule through the air#11projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#11projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays#113projected
Colorado State
Colorado State is in year 1 under Jim Mora, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 133rd at closing out passing downs, and they are 132nd at generating havoc.
On fourth down he goes for it less often than his peers do from the same spots (−3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −39.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Colorado State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Defensethe push the line gets#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1336, SDSU Elo 1469 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +13.8 (19% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
SDSU123rd114thCSUCSU13th65thSDSUThrough the air
SDSU133rd57thCSUCSU24th84thSDSUOn the ground
SDSU50th113thCSUCSU28th105thSDSUStaying on the field
SDSU104th31stCSUCSU34th75thSDSUTaking care of it
SDSU104th1stCSUCSU21st22ndSDSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSan Diego State leads 23–15 · 37% have been one-possession games
| SDSU | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +3.8 (#56) | CORE overall | -5.4 (#94) |
| -7 / -10 | offense / defense | +0 / +6 |
| 0.91 | points / drive | 3.50 |
| 2.80 | allowed / drive | 1.00 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| -23 | pass over expected | +10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win San Diego State vs. Colorado State?
Gridpex's model favors San Diego State with a 81% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for San Diego State vs. Colorado State?
The model projects San Diego State by 13.8.
What time is San Diego State vs. Colorado State and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 24, 6:30 PM ET, at Canvas Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →