Ohio vs. Akron Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Ohio gets at Akron: 24th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 82nd at generating havoc. Where Akron gets at Ohio: 43rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 95th at keeping everything in front of them. Ohio is also 21st in the push up front, against a unit 68th.
How
OHIOattacks
AKR
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
OHIO#24 of 138AKR#82 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · projected
OHIO#21 of 138AKR#68 of 138 - 3
Throw it
throwing it · projected
OHIO#47 of 138AKR#92 of 138
HowAKRattacksOHIO
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
AKR#43 of 138OHIO#95 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#4projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#24projected
- Offenserunning it#25projected
Akron
Akron is in year 5 under Joe Moorhead, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 119th at running it, and they are 118th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Akron has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#119projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#118projected
- Offensefirst and second down#109projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 929, OHIO Elo 1318 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR +0.7 (48% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO115th116thAKRAKR77th128thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO113th116thAKRAKR79th119thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO85th69thAKRAKR48th129thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO81st92ndAKRAKR56th137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO31st53rdAKRAKR68th118thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesOhio leads 23–10 · Ohio has won 7 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| OHIO | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | -16.5 (#133) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -5 / +12 |
| 2.00 | points / drive | 1.70 |
| 4.46 | allowed / drive | 3.70 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. Akron?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. Akron?
The model projects Ohio by 0.7.
What time is Ohio vs. Akron and what channel is it on?
Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET, at InfoCision Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →