Akron vs. Massachusetts Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Akron gets at Massachusetts: 97th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 138th at generating havoc. Where Massachusetts gets at Akron: 40th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 88th at keeping everything in front of them. Akron is also 100th at throwing it, against a unit 138th.
How
AKRattacks
MASS
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
AKR#97 of 138MASS#138 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
AKR#100 of 138MASS#138 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
AKR#105 of 138MASS#138 of 138
HowMASSattacksAKR
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
MASS#40 of 138AKR#88 of 138
The two teams
Akron
Akron is in year 5 under Joe Moorhead, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 119th at running it, and they are 118th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −24.9% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Akron has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#119projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#118projected
- Offensefirst and second down#110projected
Massachusetts
Massachusetts is in year 2 under Joe Harasymiak. The strengths are defensive, led by 23rd at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 138th at throwing it, and they are 138th at moving the ball on the ground.
Massachusetts has played 1 game against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#23projected
Projected soft spots
- Offensethrowing it#138projected
- Offensemoving the ball on the ground#138projected
- Offensefirst and second down#138projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MASS Elo 1076, AKR Elo 929 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MASS +19.4 (10% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AKR78th66thMASSMASS35th122ndAKRThrough the air
AKR81st103rdMASSMASS105th122ndAKROn the ground
AKR43rd37thMASSMASS65th63rdAKRStaying on the field
AKR52nd22ndMASSMASS94th97thAKRTaking care of it
AKR48th9thMASSMASS1st76thAKR
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| AKR | MASS | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.3 (#129) | CORE overall | -16.0 (#122) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | -10 / +6 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 3.70 |
| 3.70 | allowed / drive | 1.75 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Akron vs. Massachusetts?
Gridpex's model favors Akron with a 90% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Akron vs. Massachusetts?
The model projects Akron by 19.4.
What time is Akron vs. Massachusetts and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →