Akron vs. Kent State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Akron gets at Kent State: 43rd at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 96th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Kent State gets at Akron: 12th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 97th at keeping everything in front of them.
How
AKRattacks
KENT
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
AKR#43 of 138KENT#96 of 138
HowKENTattacksAKR
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
KENT#12 of 138AKR#97 of 138
The two teams
Akron
Akron is in year 5 under Joe Moorhead, whose offenses have been balanced. The way in is 119th at running it, and they are 118th at surviving second and twelve.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.7%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −25.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Akron has played 2 games against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#119projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#118projected
- Offensefirst and second down#109projected
Kent State
Kent State is in year 2 under Mark Carney. The strengths are offensive, led by 12th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 133rd at running it.
Kent State has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#12projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#134projected
- Offenserunning it#133projected
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KENT Elo 1056, AKR Elo 929 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KENT +4.6 (39% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AKR77th121stKENTKENT105th116thAKRThrough the air
AKR79th104thKENTKENT111th116thAKROn the ground
AKR48th111thKENTKENT81st69thAKRStaying on the field
AKR56th70thKENTKENT47th92ndAKRTaking care of it
AKR68th53rdKENTKENT118th53rdAKR
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAkron leads 26–19–1 · 43% have been one-possession games
| AKR | KENT | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.5 (#133) | CORE overall | -23.2 (#137) |
| -5 / +12 | offense / defense | -8 / +15 |
| 1.70 | points / drive | 0.00 |
| 3.70 | allowed / drive | 6.22 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 33% |
| +2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Akron vs. Kent State?
Gridpex's model favors Akron with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Akron vs. Kent State?
The model projects Akron by 4.6.
What time is Akron vs. Kent State and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Dix Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →