Wyoming vs. Akron: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WYOTeam statsAKR
- Q4 4:26WYOChris Durr Jr. 35 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)10–0
- Q2 5:20WYOErik Sandvik 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AKR played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and WYO did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.1 vs 3rd & 5.3
- PassKaden Anderson 19/36, 260 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushSam Scott 29 CAR, 132 YDS
- RecChris Durr Jr. 7 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
- PassBen Finley 16/38, 139 YDS, 1 INT
- RushMarquese Williams 6 CAR, 30 YDS
- RecSean Patrick 4 REC, 47 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWYO up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 6:08WYO +18%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 44 yds to the AKR 41 for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:04AKR +18%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the WYO 35
- Q4 8:34WYO +16%
Wyoming Penalty, false start (Nathan Geiger) to the WYO 29
- Q4 4:26WYO +15%
Kaden Anderson pass complete to Chris Durr Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Erik Sandvik KICK) (Erik Sandvik KICK)
- Q4 6:16AKR +15%
Joseph Castle punt for 48 yds, Charlie Coenen returns for 1 yd to the WYO 15
- Q4 8:54AKR +13%
Joseph Castle punt for 46 yds, Charlie Coenen returns for 10 yds to the WYO 20 Wyoming Penalty, illegal block (Nico Hamilton) to the WYO 34
FAQ
What was the final score of Wyoming vs. Akron?
Wyoming 10, Akron 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WYO) was correct.
| WYO | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| 426 | Total yards | 228 |
| 260 | Passing yards | 139 |
| 166 | Rushing yards | 89 |
| 19 | First downs | 13 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 3-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/36 | Comp/Att | 16/38 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 3.7 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-40 | Penalties | 5-34 |
| 33:16 | Possession | 26:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:48 WYO punt on 4th & 2 at AKR 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:26WYOChris Durr Jr. 35 Yd pass from Kaden Anderson (Erik Sandvik Kick)10–0
- Q2 5:20WYOErik Sandvik 25 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AKR Elo 1245, WYO Elo 1367 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AKR +2.5 (45% to win) — 3.5 points clear of AKR's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WYO | AKR | |
|---|---|---|
| -15.3 (#111) | CORE overall | -21.3 (#128) |
| -18 / -3 | offense / defense | -13 / +8 |
| 1.07 | points / drive | 1.55 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 2.41 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →