Plaster Sports ComplexConference gameClosing line: WKU +-3.5 · WKU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WKU | 0 | 10 | 14 | 3 | 27 |
| MOST | 0 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 22 |
Team stats
WKUthis game · better side highlightedMOST
476
Total yards
414317
Passing yards
200159
Rushing yards
21425
First downs
214-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
MOST 1338
WKU 1411
Projected spread
MOST +0.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
WKU
52% to win
Market spread
MOST +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
MOST
3.0 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
48%
MOST · market 37%
Our model blends Elo ratings (MOST Elo 1338, WKU Elo 1411) plus home-field advantage. That projects MOST +0.5 (48% to win) — 3.0 points of value on MOST versus the market line of +3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
MOST (top)WKU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: MOST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- MOST pass offense (0.34 PPA) vs. WKU pass defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
- WKU pass offense (0.24 PPA) vs. MOST pass defense (0.33 allowed) — edge MOST.
- WKU rush offense (0.08 PPA) vs. MOST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MOST.
Drive-by-drive
WKU 5/12 scoring drives← own end zone →MOST 5/12 scoring drives
WKUPUNT4 pl, 28 yds· own 15Q1
MOSTPUNT5 pl, 28 yds· own 14Q1
WKUPUNT5 pl, 10 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
WKU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
85%
WKU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State?
Western Kentucky 27, Missouri State 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had WKU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.