Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
WKUTeam statsMOST
- Q4 4:13MOSTTristian Gardner 9 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–22
- Q4 12:21WKUJohn Cannon 19 Yd Field Goal 27–16
- Q3 1:16WKULa'Vell Wright 17 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)24–16
- Q3 6:29WKULa'Vell Wright 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)17–16
- Q3 12:16MOSTShomari Lawrence 32 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)10–16
- Q2 0:59MOSTYousef Obeid 19 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 3:31MOSTYousef Obeid 22 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 8:43WKUJohn Cannon 26 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 13:56WKUNoah Meyers 39 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:55MOSTYousef Obeid 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- WKU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MOST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.5
- MOST lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassMaverick McIvor 26/39, 317 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLa'Vell Wright 10 CAR, 91 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMatthew Henry 5 REC, 73 YDS
- PassJacob Clark 8/15, 143 YDS
- RushShomari Lawrence 16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDash Luke 3 REC, 71 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWKU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 6:29WKU +27%
La'Vell Wright run for 2 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 1:16WKU +27%
La'Vell Wright run for 17 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q3 12:16MOST +25%
Shomari Lawrence run for 32 yds for a TD (Yousef Obeid KICK)
- Q2 13:56WKU +20%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Noah Meyers for 39 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)
- Q4 2:00WKU +19%
La'Vell Wright run for 6 yds to the MOST 38
- Q4 4:13MOST +17%
Bailey,Deuce pass attempt failed PENALTY WKU Holding offsetting MSU Holding offsetting. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State?
Western Kentucky 27, Missouri State 22.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WKU) was correct.
| WKU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| 476 | Total yards | 414 |
| 317 | Passing yards | 200 |
| 159 | Rushing yards | 214 |
| 25 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 2-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 26/39 | Comp/Att | 15/32 |
| 8.1 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 5.5 | Yards per rush | 6.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-94 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 31:28 | Possession | 28:32 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:21 WKU field goal on 4th & 1 at MOST 1. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 2.14 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:13MOSTTristian Gardner 9 Yd pass from Deuce Bailey (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–22
- Q4 12:21WKUJohn Cannon 19 Yd Field Goal 27–16
- Q3 1:16WKULa'Vell Wright 17 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)24–16
- Q3 6:29WKULa'Vell Wright 2 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)17–16
- Q3 12:16MOSTShomari Lawrence 32 Yd Run (Yousef Obeid Kick)10–16
- Q2 0:59MOSTYousef Obeid 19 Yd Field Goal 10–9
- Q2 3:31MOSTYousef Obeid 22 Yd Field Goal 10–6
- Q2 8:43WKUJohn Cannon 26 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q2 13:56WKUNoah Meyers 39 Yd pass from Maverick McIvor (John Cannon Kick)7–3
- Q2 14:55MOSTYousef Obeid 49 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MOST Elo 1338, WKU Elo 1411 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MOST +0.5 (50% to win) — 3.0 points clear of MOST's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WKU | MOST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.3 (#83) | CORE overall | -9.3 (#92) |
| -6 / +0 | offense / defense | -0 / +9 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 2.26 |
| 1.79 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +10 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →