Western Carolina vs. Wake Forest: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
Western Carolina
Wake Forest1-0
▸Final
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
WESTTeam statsWAKE
238Total yards542
204Pass269
34Rush273
17First downs21
4-173rd down4-10
2Turnovers3
35:58Possession24:02
- Q4 6:49WESTMarkel Townsend 1 Yd Run (Marcus Trout Kick)10–42
- Q3 1:52WAKEJeremiah Melvin 27 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)3–42
- Q3 7:16WAKESterling Berkhalter 51 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)3–35
- Q3 12:29WAKEDemond Claiborne 85 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–28
- Q2 5:46WESTChristian Lowery 23 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 0:27WAKETeam Safety 0–21
- Q1 2:47WAKEDemond Claiborne 27 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 2:59WAKEDemond Claiborne 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 5:57WAKERobby Ashford 41 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
Market line
WAKE −17.5
Against the number
WAKE covered
line WAKE −17.5
What the numbers say
- WAKE lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 24% explosive on a 34% success rate
Kickoff154 plays →Final
Tap or hover on the chart to see play details
WAKE (top)WEST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: WAKE 100%
Closing line
WAKE −17.5
Closing total
60.0
Model line
—
Actual result
WEST 10 – 42 WAKE
Western Carolina
- PassBennett Judy 18/32, 155 YDS, 1 INT
- RushIsaac Lee 5 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecMalik Knight 5 REC, 56 YDS
Wake Forest
- PassRobby Ashford 13/22, 227 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDemond Claiborne 10 CAR, 193 YDS, 3 TD
- RecChris Barnes 6 REC, 149 YDS
26.8sper snap · slower the national 24.5s
fastnational avgslow
Snaps run
134
Points / snap
0.39
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsWAKE up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
WAKE went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Western Carolina vs. Wake Forest?
Western Carolina 10, Wake Forest 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (WAKE) was correct.
WEST
WAKE
29%
Success rate
34%
-0.07
EPA / pass
0.40
-0.13
EPA / rush
0.13
28%
Early-down success
34%
33%
Pass success
32%
22%
Rush success
36%
7%
Explosive play rate (15+ yds)
24%
33%
Stuffed rush rate
39%
64%
Pass rate
48%
8.1
Avg 3rd-down distance
10.0
WEST
8.1 yards to go on 3rd down
75 scrimmage snaps
WAKE
10.0 yards to go on 3rd down
59 scrimmage snaps
| WEST | WAKE | |
|---|---|---|
| 238 | Total yards | 542 |
| 204 | Passing yards | 269 |
| 34 | Rushing yards | 273 |
| 17 | First downs | 21 |
| 4-17 | 3rd down | 4-10 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 26/43 | Comp/Att | 16/26 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 8.8 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-48 | Penalties | 3-22 |
| 35:58 | Possession | 24:02 |
WEST
10/13 with the model
−1.4 pts · −0.0% win prob
WAKE
5/6 with the model
nothing given up
Costliest call
Q2 0:31 WEST go for it on 4th & 11 at WAKE 26. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.74 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finishWEST 3/15 scoring drives← own end zone →WAKE 6/16 scoring drives
WAKEPUNT6 pl, 16 yds· own 31Q1
WESTPUNT6 pl, 15 yds· own 12Q1
WAKEPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 23Q1
WESTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 32Q1
WAKETD5 pl, 62 yds· own 38Q1
WESTPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 12Q1
WAKETD2 pl, 73 yds· own 27Q1
WESTINT1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
WAKETD1 pl, 27 yds· opp 27Q1
WESTPUNT3 pl, -22 yds· own 25Q1
WAKEPUNT3 pl, -3 yds· opp 40Q1
WESTSAF2 pl, -3 yds· own 3Q1
WAKEINT2 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1
WESTFG17 pl, 74 yds· own 21Q2
WAKEMISS6 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q2
WESTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2
WAKEFUM3 pl, 17 yds· own 18Q2
WESTDOWNS6 pl, 19 yds· opp 35Q2
WAKEEND1 pl, 2 yds· own 16Q2
WESTPUNT5 pl, 16 yds· own 25Q3
WAKETD2 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q3
WESTPUNT4 pl, 24 yds· own 25Q3
WAKEFUM3 pl, 14 yds· own 20Q3
WESTPUNT3 pl, -10 yds· opp 34Q3
WAKETD2 pl, 93 yds· own 7Q3
WESTFUM2 pl, 6 yds· own 25Q3
WAKEDOWNS6 pl, 22 yds· opp 31Q3
WESTPUNT4 pl, 9 yds· own 9Q3
WAKETD3 pl, 30 yds· opp 30Q3
WESTTD14 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q3
WAKEEND10 pl, 34 yds· own 35Q4
- Q4 6:49WESTMarkel Townsend 1 Yd Run (Marcus Trout Kick)10–42
- Q3 1:52WAKEJeremiah Melvin 27 Yd pass from Deshawn Purdie (Connor Calvert Kick)3–42
- Q3 7:16WAKESterling Berkhalter 51 Yd pass from Robby Ashford (Connor Calvert Kick)3–35
- Q3 12:29WAKEDemond Claiborne 85 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)3–28
- Q2 5:46WESTChristian Lowery 23 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q1 0:27WAKETeam Safety 0–21
- Q1 2:47WAKEDemond Claiborne 27 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–19
- Q1 2:59WAKEDemond Claiborne 33 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 5:57WAKERobby Ashford 41 Yd Run (Connor Calvert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOne or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →